Trading Update: Friday November 17, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a Hight 1 buy signal bar yesterday, closing near its high. The bulls are hopeful there will buy buyers above yesterday’s High 1 and today will have an upside breakout.
- Because the market is getting climactic, there is an increased risk that there may be sellers above yesterday’s high leading to a pullback before the bulls can get trend resumption.
- If sellers are above, the pullback will likely be brief and lead to buyers near the bottom of yesterday’s High 1.
- The bears need more selling pressure to develop to have any reasonable expectation of getting a reversal.
- This means that the bears need to make the market go sideways and accumulate more bear bars if they are going to get a successful reversal.
- The market is so close to the September 1st high that it will probably reach it soon, even if there is a pullback first.
- Overall, the daily chart is still Always In Longa, and buyers are likely below on any pullback.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 7 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Emini rallied in a weak bull channel for most of the overnight session. The bears recently formed a downside breakout with follow-through on the 15-minute chart.
- As mentioned above, yesterday was a High 1 buy signals bar on the daily chart. This means that yesterday’s high will be an important magnet going into today’s open.
- As I often say, traders should expect a lot of trading range price action on the open. Most traders should consider not trading the first 6-12 bars unless they are comfortable with wide stops and limit orders.
- There is at least an 80% chance of an opening swing trade beginning before the end of the second hour. It is common for the opening swing to occur after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. This means a traders can often wait for one of these patterns to form before placing a trade to try and catch the opening swing.
- Today is Friday, which means that the weekly chart will be important going into the close of today. Traders should be prepared for a possible surprise breakout late in the day as institutions decide on the close of the weekly chart.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is attempting to get a second leg up after Tuesday’s strong upside breakout.
- The bears are hopeful that the bulls who bought the breakout earlier this week are disappointed enough that they will look to sell out of their longs around the current price level.
- At the moment, the odds favor another leg up and a test of the August 30th high.
- Less likely the bears will form a 2nd leg trap and get a reversal down to the bottom of the November 14th breakout.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.