Trading Update: Wednesday June 14, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini is becoming climactic in need of a correction, lasting a day or two.
- Yesterday formed, another bull trend bar, with a small tail above the bar, which is good for the bulls.
- The market is so close to August 2022 high that it will probably get there soon. However, it may have to pull back first before reaching the August high due to the risk getting big for the bulls.
- The bears want the rally to fail around the current price level, just like it did last August.
- With the rally as strong as it is, the market will probably have to go sideways first and develop more selling pressure before the bears can take control.
- This means that the first reversal down will likely be minor and get bought.
- The market does not have to stop at the August high and can continue up to the March 2022 price level.
- Overall, traders will probably look for a pullback and for the market to go sideways for a day or two.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 4 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The overnight Globex market has gone mostly sideways in a trading range.
- Since the daily chart is becoming climactic, traders should expect a pullback lasting a day or two. This means that today will probably have a lot of trading range price action and get a close below the open.
- If the market does rally on the open, traders should be prepared for a possible opening reversal down and an early high of the day.
- As I often say, traders should assume that the open will have a lot of trading range price action. Most traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars before placing a trade. This will help traders avoid getting on the wrong side of the market.
- Traders should also focus on catching the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is typical for the opening swing to begin after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Lastly, traders should be mindful of the August 2022 high, the 4,400 big round number, yesterday’s high, and the day’s open, as these are all magnets.
Emini intraday market update
- The Market rallied forming a bull trend from the open lasting 24 bars. However, the day was likely to form a trading range, which meant the bull trend was unlikely to last all day.
- The market reversed back down to the open of the day, and now the market is deciding if the recent bear breakout down to bar 46 (10:20) is going to get a 2nd leg down, or will the market reverse back up.
- The bears have done a good job with the selloff from bar 24 – 46. The problem the bears face now is that the market is at the open of the day, which will likely act as support.
- There is a report at 11:00 that has the potential to move the market, so most traders should be flat and wait at least 2 bars following the report.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD closed above the moving average (blue line) yesterday, which is a sign of strength by the bulls.
- At the moment, today’s bar is a bull bar above the prior bar, which is good follow-through for the bulls.
- The bulls want today’s bar to close above yesterday’s, which would signify strength. The bears will try to prevent the bulls from getting a strong close today.
- At a minimum, the bears want the market to close below the midpoint of yesterday’s bar.
- The bulls are getting a bull breakout of the recent bear flag (May 31st low and June 9th high). The bulls want a measured move up of the bear flag, which projects up to the May 10th breakout point low.
- Overall, traders will pay close attention to see if the bulls can continue to get strong bull closes, increasing the odds of higher prices and a test of the May 10th low.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Here is YouTube link if your browser blocks video popup:
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.