Emini May Form Inside Bar This Week

Trading Update: Monday September 11, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini formed an inside bar with last week’s range. Traders should be open to the possibility of this week having a lot of overlap.
• The Emini broke a four-bar bear micro channel last Friday. The bears are hopeful that the first reversal of the microchannel will lead to a second leg down. However, the pullback will likely be deeper than what the bears want.
• The daily chart has been in a trading range for several months. This increases the odds of disappointment for both sides.
• The bulls want a test of the September 1^st high, and the bears want a second leg down after last week’s selloff.
• Overall, the bulls will try to get more follow-through buying to disappoint the bears further. The bears want to trigger last Friday’s low 1, although, probably buyers below. Traders should expect sideways traders for the next couple of days.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is up 25 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The overnight Globex session rallied for several hours.
• The market will likely gap up at the start of the U.S. Session.
• Traders should expect a trading range open. There is an 80% chance of the market going sideways for at least 6-12 bars on the open. This means that traders should not rush to trade the open.
• There is only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
• It is important to be patient on the open and remember that there will be several opportunities to trade. By waiting for clarity on the open, one will have a higher probability of getting the day type correct and making money.
• It is common on the open to have several reversals. This means that limit order trading is typically more ideal on the open.
• Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is common for the market to form a double bottom/top or a wedge bottom/top before the swing trade begins.
• The open swing typically has at least a 40% chance of doubling the opening range, which can lead to a great risk/reward trade.
• Lastly, traders should pay attention to the open of the day and last Friday’s low/high, as these will likely act as magnets today.

Emini intraday market update

• The Emini opened with a gap up and sold off, forming a trend from the open bear trend.
• While the selloff was strong for the first half hour of the session, the first bar of the day was a bull trend bar closing at its midpoint. This increased the odds of buyers below bar 1 scaling in lower.
• While many bulls who bought the bar 1 low would likely have taken a loss during bar 2, some would hold long and scale in lower, betting the market would retest bar 1. This is important because it increased the odds of the opening selloff becoming a sell vacuum test of support instead of a bear trend from the open that would last all day.
• As of bar 50, the market will likely find resistance soon. Today is unlikely to become a bull trend day, which means that today will likely remain a trading range day for the rest of the day.

Friday’s Emini setups

Richard created the SP500 Emini chart (Al travelling). Chart time is ET+12 hours.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD is getting near the May 31^st low, which will likely act as support.
• The Bears have done an excellent job with the selloff. However, it is becoming climactic and forming nested wedges. This will increase the odds of a rally back to the moving average.
• The daily chart may have to reach the May 31^st low before the bulls can get a rally. If the market rallies just above the May 31^st low, traders will question if the May 31^st low was adequately tested.
• Overall, traders should expect a trading range to develop soon, even if the EURUSD has to test May 31^st before forming the trading range.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini chart.

End of day video review

Here is YouTube link if video popup blocked:

Emini End of Day Review – Monday September 11, 2023 – Brad Wolff

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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