Trading Update: Friday September 16, 2022
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The bears have done an excellent job disappointing the bulls. However, the market is in a broad trading range, so the bears will probably be disappointed soon. Emini likely rally back to the 4,000 big round number soon. The reason is that the bulls have had much buying pressure over the past two weeks and will probably buy any new low below September 1.
- The bears got follow-through yesterday following the September 13 bear breakout.
- September 14 was a doji and bad follow-through for bears; they managed to get a doji which was the minimum follow-through needed.
- Yesterday was good for the bears and a sign of lower prices.
- The bears will try to get a breakout below the July 26 breakout which would be a neckline for the double top (you can also call it a failed breakout below a double bottom July 26 and September 1).
- The next target for the bears is the July 18 or the July 14 low.
- The bears will probably be disappointed soon, and buyers will come in. While the bears may get down to the July 18 or 14 low, there will likely be buyers soon. The bulls have gotten much buying pressure over the past two weeks, which will probably entice bulls to buy quickly.
- The bulls want any breakout below the September lows to fail and reverse back up, creating a wedge bottom (July 26, September 1, and a failed breakout).
- Overall, the market will probably reverse up soon and test the 4,000 big round number area. This is where bulls got trapped buying during the September 13 selloff and will use any rally to exit their longs.
- Today is Friday, so the weekly chart is important. The bears want the week to close below last week’s low, and the bulls want to prevent it and make the week close as far above last week’s low as possible.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 50 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The market will gap down today as the bears have gotten a decent selloff during the overnight Globex session.
- Traders should expect a limit order open and multiple failed breakouts.
- As I usually say, most traders should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trade since the odds favor sideways during the first hour.
- Most traders should also look for a swing trade as a double top/bottom or wedge top/bottom.
- If today is going to be an intense trend day, there will be plenty of time to buy it. This means there is no rush to bet on breakouts until there is a clear breakout with follow-through.
- Traders should pay extra close attention to the day’s opening as the bulls will try to get a bull close today and disappoint the bears.
- The market is in a broad trading range, so the bears will probably be disappointed soon.
- Today is Friday, so traders should be mindful of surprise breakouts late in the day as institutions decide on closing the weekly chart.
- Traders should pay attention to last week’s low as it will likely be a magnet today due to the weekly chart.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The bears are getting a second leg down following the September 13 bear breakout.
- The last two days were bull bars which are bad follow-through and a sign that the second leg down will probably be brief and get bought.
- The bulls want a higher low significant trend reversal and rally back to the September high and, ultimately, the August highs.
- Low probability that the September 13 bear breakout will lead to a breakout far below the September lows.
- The bulls have been buying every new low over the past two months and will likely continue.
- Overall, the market will probably try and rally soon as the bears have been in a bear trend on the daily chart for over 15 months.
- Today is Friday, so the weekly chart is essential. The bears want the market to close around the current price, which is the week’s low (.9945), and the bulls want to get a rally today to prevent a close on the low.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day review
- Today had an early rally that led to a trading range day.
- The market formed a wedge top at the moving average and sold off for several hours. However, the bulls kept getting lots of bull bars closing above their midpoints, which increased the odds of trading range price action to follow.
- In general, the more buying pressure in a bear channel, the greater the odds the market will have an upside breakout.
- The bulls could make money buying below bars down today, which increased the odds that the bears would give up.
- The market formed a higher low major trend reversal around 11:00 PT, and the bulls got an upside breakout that led to a breakout of the open of the day.
- The market rallied for the rest of the day and closed near its high.
- Overall, today was a good day for the bulls and a disappointing day for the bears. The market will likely have to rally back to 4,000 soon.
- I will update you with a video soon.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.