Emini Likely Sideways Over Next 2 Days

Trading Update: Monday April 17, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini last Friday closed as a doji bar, following Thursday’s bull bar closing on its high. Emini likely sideways over next 2 days.
• The bulls want last Friday to be a pullback that will lead to higher prices in the tight bull channel.
• Bears want the bulls to be disappointed with last Friday’s weak follow-through. They hope the bulls will look to sell out of longs at last Thursday’s bull close.
• If the bears are lucky, today will be a bear bar closing on its low and possibly below last Friday’s close.
• The market has two bear bars closing on their lows over the past eight trading days. While this is good for the bears, they need to develop more selling pressure to convince traders that they have taken control.
• Next, the bears need to for two to three consecutive bear trend bars closing near their lows.
• The bears have the argument of a lower high following February 2^nd. However, with the channel up from the March 13^th low being tight, the best the bears can hope for is sideways until they can form more selling pressure.
• Overall, traders should expect sideways over the next couple of days. The bulls will try and get a breakout above the February 2^nd high. The bears will try and get a downside breakout and close below the March 22^nd breakout point high.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 5 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The Globex Market has gone sideways for most of the overnight Globex Session.
• As of 5:45 AM PT, the bears are trying to get a downside breakout. Next, the bears want to test the lows of April 14^th.
• Since April 14^th had a big selloff, followed by a big rally, this will increase the odds of sideways trading today.
• If one looks at a 60-minute chart is clear that the bulls and bears are both trying and get a 2^nd leg up or down following last Friday’s selloff and rally.
• The bears got trapped on the reversal up from last Friday. It is possible the market will have to test lower during the U.S. Session and allow the remaining trapped bear out with a smaller loss. This increases the chances of a possible opening reversal if the bears get a brief selloff on the open.
• As I often say, most traders should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trade. Plenty of traders will trade after the close of the first or second bar of the day. However, several reversals on the open often require traders to make fast decisions.
•  By waiting for 6-12 bars, a trader will have the opportunity to gain more clarity on the potential day type.
• Traders should expect a swing trade to begin before the end of the second hour and possibly after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
• The most important thing is to be patient on the open and not be in a rush. Remember, there are 81 bars to the day, so there is plenty of time to trade. It is easy to become too aggressive on the open, and if one gets 2-3 losses, they will spend the rest of the day trying to break even on the day.

Friday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD broke above the February high last Thursday. However, the breakout failed and reversed back down.
• The bears see a possible wedge top (March 23^rd, April 4^th and April 14^th). The bears have a good signal bar for the wedge. However, the last leg up follows three consecutive bull bars, lowering the wedge’s probability
• If the bears can get 2-3 bear bars closing on their lows, it will be a higher probability for the reversal down to go lower.
• The first target for the bears is the April 10^th low, which is the bottom of the third leg.
• The bulls see yesterday as a pullback from the bull breakout above the February high.
• Today is an important bar. The bears need to get a strong bear bar closing on its low, and the bulls need to prevent a strong close. Ideally, the bulls need to get a reversal bar closing on its high, which would form a breakout pullback buy (High 1 Buy).

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

• Today’s End Of Day review was presented in the Trading Room and is only available to the trading room subscribers.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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