Emini Likely to Close near Open of Week

Trading Update: Wednesday May 7, 2025

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Daily chart has had a two-day pullback following the May 2nd bull close. The channel up to the 2nd is tight; however, there are many overlapping bars, which increases the chances that the market will go sideways soon.
• The odds favor a retest of the May 2nd close, and price will probably have to go above the bar to satisfy the argument of a second leg.
• The current price is near the midpoint between the all-time high and the April low, which is a likely neutral area.
• This increases the odds that the daily chart will have a lot of trading range price action around this price level.
• Yesterday was a weak high one with a tail above the bar, increasing the odds that there are sellers above yesterday’s high.
• The Bears have done a good job creating overlap, but they need to create more barrel bars closing below their midpoints.
• The market will probably touch the moving average over the next several days.
• Because the weekly chart is testing near the moving average after consecutive bull bars, the odds are that this week will be disappointing for the bulls.
• This increases the chances that the market may close on Friday at the open of the week. This reduces the chances of the market getting a big move in the next few days.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The E-mini formed a very small gap inside yesterday’s trading range. Bar one was a large doji bar, which increased the odds of more sideways price action over the next couple of bars.
• The rally up to Bar 14 is tight. However, most of the bars are overlapping.
• The Bulls are doing a good job getting 9 bars above the moving average, and that’s a sign of strength by the Bulls.
• The bulls’ problem is that, except for 5 and 6, 7 through 9 have been in a tight trading range, which increases the risk of a potential reversal down.
• The bulls hope this will continue to be a small pullback trend for the rest of the day, and it’s possible. Ideally, the bulls need more open gaps. They have a possible gap between the three close and the eight low, but that alone is insufficient.
• Because yesterday’s Bears 33 was a strong breakout bar, there’s added risk that the market will have to retest the close. This means the market may have to go a bit higher before the bears get a chance at a reversal down.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

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EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD is spending much time going sideways in a tight trading range at the moving average.
• Yesterday, a bull bar formed, closing on a tie, and the bulls are hopeful that this will lead to trend resumption in a test of the April high.
• The Bears need to get a clear breakout below the moving average. Without it, the odds will favor a trading range, and buyers will probably be at or below the moving average.
• Even if the market reaches the April high, the odds are that there’s probably selling above it.
• The Bears need to do more than what they’ve done here. They’ve done a good job getting a test of the moving average. However, the market will probably have to test the April high and create a credible double top. Then the bears will have a chance at a possible major trend reversal.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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