Trading Update: Wednesday November 30, 2022
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The market is in a tight trading range, with the 4,000 considerable round number close to the middle of the range. Traders should expect the market likely to oscillate around 4,000 until there is a clear breakout with follow-through.
- The bears had a decent bear bar on November 28, but the follow-through today was disappointing for the bears. This is a reminder that the market is in a trading range.
- The bulls are trying to prevent a bear close below the November 1 breakout point. However, the longer the market goes sideways the more neutral the market will become.
- If the bears can close the breakout point gap (November 1 high), the probability will go up for a test of the November low.
- The longer the market goes sideways here, the greater the risk of a bear breakout and test of the November low.
- There are targets above for the bulls, such as the September 12 low and the August 26 high. Even if the market sells off to the November low, the odds are that the market will reach the targets mentioned above. This is because the market is in a trading range.
- Overall, traders should expect the trading range trading to continue until there is a clear breakout.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 3 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market has been in a trading range for most of the overnight/morning session.
- The market is deciding if yesterday’s U.S. Session bear breakout will get a second leg down or if the market will reverse up and test yesterday’s U.S. Session high.
- As always, traders should expect a trading range open. This means traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars before placing trades unless they are comfortable with limit order trading.
- Traders can also consider waiting for a credible stop entry as a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- The 4,000 considerable round number is only 40 points away. Since this is a critical magnet, traders should be mindful that the market may have to rally to it today or tomorrow.
- Overall, if today has a bear breakout below yesterday’s low, traders should expect the overnight session to act as a final flag and the market to rally soon after.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD tested the November 22nd buy signal bar yesterday and is trying to form a pullback buy signal today.
- The bulls will try their best to get a bull bar closing on their high today. The bears want the opposite and for today to disappoint the bulls and continue the sideways price action.
- The bulls need to show signs of strength soon, or the probability will become closer to 50% for a bull or bear breakout.
- The bears did an excellent job with the November 21 selloff. That was disappointing enough for the bulls that it increased the odds of sellers above the November 15 high and sideways.
- At the moment, the odds still favor higher prices and a measured move-up of the November 10 and 11 bull breakout; however, as stated earlier, the probability is becoming worse for the bulls with every bar that goes sideways.
- Overall, traders should expect the market to continue sideways.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
End of day video review added…
Wed’ session was also the last trading day for November thus bulls made decent move towards December opening
I find today’s action quite interesting since CME FedWatch has had a 65-75% chance of a 1/2 point cut all month. Powell’s remarks should not have been a big surprise.
Thanks Brad. 10.30pst is critical…FED chair Powell speech may get a strong reaction , depending on what he says.