Market Overview: EURUSD Forex
The EURUSD Forex weekly candlestick was a bear follow-through bar with EURUSD retest of July low. The prominent tail below indicates that the bears are not yet as strong as they would like to be. The bears want a strong breakout and a measured move down to the year 2000 low. Bulls want the EURUSD to stall around the July low and another reversal attempt from a wedge bottom (Mar 4, May 13 and July 14) and a double bottom with the July low (July 14 and May 23).
EURUSD Forex market
The Weekly EURUSD chart
- This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a follow-through bear bar with a prominent tail below and above.
- Last week, we said that the EURUSD slightly favor sideways to down to test the July low.
- The EURUSD traded below the July low but closed above it. The prominent tail below indicates that the bears are not as strong as they could have been.
- The bears want a strong breakout below the 2017 low, and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. This will take them to the year 2000 low.
- They got 2 bear bars closing below the 2017 low during the breakout in July, increasing the odds of a breakout and a measured move down.
- The move down is in a tight bear channel. That means strong bears.
- The bears got the second leg sideways to down after the recent pullback.
- The bulls hope that the recent 4-week tight trading range pullback is the final flag of the move down which started in February 2022.
- They want a failed breakout below the 7-year trading range and a reversal higher from a wedge bottom (Mar 4, May 13 and July 14) and a double bottom with July low (July 14 and May 23).
- The bulls have repeatedly failed to create strong follow-through buying since the sell-off started in 2021.
- For now, the EURUSD slightly favor sideways to down.
- If the bears start getting strong consecutive bear bars closing below July low, odds of a breakout, and a measured move down increase.
- However, if the next couple of weeks trades lower, but reverse to close as bull bars, or overlapping weak bear bars with long tails below, we may start to see another reversal attempt from the bulls.
The Daily EURUSD chart
- The EURUSD broke below the July low on Monday, but the bears did not get follow-through selling on Tuesday.
- EURUSD traded sideways to up testing the 20-day exponential moving average on Friday but reversed to close as a bear doji with a long tail above.
- Last week, we said that odds slightly favor sideways to down to test the July low. Traders will see if the bears can create consecutive bear bars breaking below the July low, or if the EURUSD stalls around the July low and reverses higher.
- For now, the bears have not yet gotten a strong breakout below the July low.
- The bulls want a failed breakout below the 7-year trading range.
- They hope that the recent 4-week tight trading range pullback is the final flag of the move down which started in February.
- The bulls want a reversal higher from wedge bottom (Mar 4, May 13 and July 14) and a double bottom with the July low.
- However, they have not been able to create strong consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
- The bears want a continuation down and a measured move down based on the height of the 7-year trading range. That would take them to the year 2000 low.
- They got a second leg sideways to down testing July low and want a breakout and a measured move down.
- For now, odds slightly favor sideways to down.
- However, if the EURUSD continues to stall around the July low, we may see another reversal attempt by the bulls within a couple of weeks.
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