Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
The FTSE futures market pulled back to below the MA in a broad bull channel. Its breakout mode, and maybe 3 pushes down after a bull spike. Traders bought the High 2 buy setup at the 100-month MA, selling above the high of the COVID crash. Longer-term buyers are probably waiting between the MA and that buy signal entry price. Bears see a failed BO and want to run the bull stops below the low of that last swing point.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Monthly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures market last month was a bear bar, closing on its low in a broad bull channel.
- When I look at the chart, the first thing I notice is in the past 2 years, the bears only one got two consecutive bear months. So, it makes me believe next month will be bullish.
- It’s a broad bull channel, and we’ve been going sideways all year.
- Last month was the first time the bears got a close below the MA – bulls will buy it.
- It is the first close on that major trendline since COVID, and bulls will buy it.
- The bulls didn’t get a good High 1, with an almost inside and then outside bar closing on its high. There will be buyers below that bar and scaling in lower.
- We are right in the middle of the trading range, and it’s a triangle – so bulls can be long and bears can be short, and no one has had their stop hit.
- Some bulls see a wedge bull flag, three pushes down and want a buy signal but not too big for a couple of legs sideways to up.
- Bears have not been able to trigger a bear signal. So it makes me believe the sellers will be above this bar not below it.
- March was a bear surprise, and bulls scaled in and got out breakeven or with a profit before giving up. We expected them to buy lower.
- Some traders might see last October as the bottom of the trading range and will wait down there to enter.
- Most of the bar is above the MA, so some traders will buy the close and buy below, betting it is a bad stop order sell below.
- It’s breakout mode (BOM) – but the bears didn’t get a good sell signal. The bulls got the High 2 in October; likely more buyers there if we reach it.
- Expect sideways to up at the MA next month.
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures market last week was a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above.
- It is a High 2 buy setup low in a trading range, which is a high probability buy for a swing. However, most traders will scalp out in the tight trading range.
- Look at every bear bar below the 100-week MA – it got bought. We said last week that more longer-term buyers would be here, and they were.
- The bulls got a bull microchannel, 4 bars up with consecutive higher lows. This could be two legs sideways to down in a pullback.
- The bulls need to break the trendline and go sideways and then up.
- The bears see the bear breakout and follow through below the MA and want it to be always in short.
- This would be the pullback so they can get another leg down.
- But they were unable to close below August. That’s not as bearish as it could be.
- The bulls should have had a strong close above the bear bar, but that tail means limit order trading, and perhaps some bulls are waiting to buy lower in the bottom part of that bull bar.
- It’s BOM, so most traders should be flat.
- Ok to buy above the week for a swing – some bulls will wait for a FT bar before buying. It is not a great place to sell. If the sell works, then that surprise should have FT as well.
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