Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
The FTSE futures market pulled back to below the MA in a broad bull channel. Its breakout mode, and maybe 3 pushes down after a bull spike. Traders bought the High 2 buy setup at the 100-month MA, selling above the high of the COVID crash. Longer-term buyers are probably waiting between the MA and that buy signal entry price. Bears see a failed BO and want to run the bull stops below the low of that last swing point.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Monthly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures market last month was a bear bar, closing on its low in a broad bull channel.
- When I look at the chart, the first thing I notice is in the past 2 years, the bears only one got two consecutive bear months. So, it makes me believe next month will be bullish.
- It’s a broad bull channel, and we’ve been going sideways all year.
- Last month was the first time the bears got a close below the MA – bulls will buy it.
- It is the first close on that major trendline since COVID, and bulls will buy it.
- The bulls didn’t get a good High 1, with an almost inside and then outside bar closing on its high. There will be buyers below that bar and scaling in lower.
- We are right in the middle of the trading range, and it’s a triangle – so bulls can be long and bears can be short, and no one has had their stop hit.
- Some bulls see a wedge bull flag, three pushes down and want a buy signal but not too big for a couple of legs sideways to up.
- Bears have not been able to trigger a bear signal. So it makes me believe the sellers will be above this bar not below it.
- March was a bear surprise, and bulls scaled in and got out breakeven or with a profit before giving up. We expected them to buy lower.
- Some traders might see last October as the bottom of the trading range and will wait down there to enter.
- Most of the bar is above the MA, so some traders will buy the close and buy below, betting it is a bad stop order sell below.
- It’s breakout mode (BOM) – but the bears didn’t get a good sell signal. The bulls got the High 2 in October; likely more buyers there if we reach it.
- Expect sideways to up at the MA next month.
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures market last week was a bull bar closing near its high with a small tail above.
- It is a High 2 buy setup low in a trading range, which is a high probability buy for a swing. However, most traders will scalp out in the tight trading range.
- Look at every bear bar below the 100-week MA – it got bought. We said last week that more longer-term buyers would be here, and they were.
- The bulls got a bull microchannel, 4 bars up with consecutive higher lows. This could be two legs sideways to down in a pullback.
- The bulls need to break the trendline and go sideways and then up.
- The bears see the bear breakout and follow through below the MA and want it to be always in short.
- This would be the pullback so they can get another leg down.
- But they were unable to close below August. That’s not as bearish as it could be.
- The bulls should have had a strong close above the bear bar, but that tail means limit order trading, and perhaps some bulls are waiting to buy lower in the bottom part of that bull bar.
- It’s BOM, so most traders should be flat.
- Ok to buy above the week for a swing – some bulls will wait for a FT bar before buying. It is not a great place to sell. If the sell works, then that surprise should have FT as well.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
