FTSE 100 Big Expanding Triangle, DT and 2nd Leg Up Likely

Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures

The FTSE futures market went sideways last week with another pause in an expanding triangle pattern. But after 4 consecutive bull bars, it will be tough for bears to do too much damage. Strong micro gaps below, so many reasons to be long. Bears hope to trap bulls here and return to the range below.

FTSE 100 Futures

The Weekly FTSE chart

• The FTSE 100 futures went sideways last week with a bear doji in what looks like an expanding triangle pattern.
• The biggest event on the chart now is a huge bull bar, most of which is closing above the MA and closing near its high. That could signal a change in character for FTSE.
• It is a bull channel on the monthly, a strong close above the MA on that timeframe, and this timeframe means the daily bears chart can’t do too much damage.
• Bears needed to break below March’s lows and get a LH – but they failed.
• An expanding triangle in a trend is usually a continuation pattern. So that means the bull case has an extra 5% on the probability.
• The bulls see a strong leg 1 from a HTF trendline and expect a second leg sideways to up.
• The bears see a HH DT, a possible DT bear flag, and failure to stop out the swing bears short from 8000 and 7900.
• The bulls see a failure to stop-out the swing bulls from 7000 and 7200.
• You can have both sides with a reasonable point of view only in a trading range.
• Trading ranges look bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.
• Look left – we reversed strongly from here two times before. But what happened last week?
• Trading ranges are also disappointing and keep traders BLSHS and taking quick profits.
• The bears might see a failed BO above the week before, as he went less than one point above. It’s technically a failed breakout, but they need next week to be a bear FT bar.
• The bulls will buy below that weak sell signal and 50% of the big bull bar and the MA for at least a move back to the high of the big bull bar.
• Nothing to sell here for most traders; better to try and position for the move up.
• Expect sideways to up next week.

The Daily FTSE chart

• The FTSE 100 futures went sideways on Friday with a bull doji and nearly no, body. That means nearly nobody held into the close.
• The HTF looks like a LH DT Bear Flag. But the bull acceleration could get another leg up. The big bull bar got FT and that usually means we need to get higher.
• The bears triggered one reversal signal on Friday… but that’s probably not enough to convince anyone to sell below here on Monday.
• It looks like a failed Low 2, but we shall see on Monday.
• It is a bull doji, so a weak buy or sell signal. Usually, the continuation of the move before is in place, so we should move higher on Monday.
• The bulls see a breakout, a very tight channel, nearly a microchannel up to the prior high.
• The bears would like a test of Aug 11^th around 7625 – they want a DT. Otherwise, bulls are hunting for the 7800 to close that gap.
• Trading ranges have a habit of explosive moves closing gaps.
• The bulls want a MM of this pullback, and they will probably get it.
• For the bears, it was a test of the sell-climax high from May 24th, which was the magnet to complete the pattern. We might race up next week and then go into BOM.
• Some bears see two failed breakouts above the prior high on July 31^st, but they should get at least one more attempt up before looking to buy lower.
• It has been sideways since March, so sudden reversals have been common – difficult trading conditions on the daily chart.
• Bulls need consecutive closes above that prior high to close that gap and then get back to 7900.
• Bears must trap them and keep the bar closing below that gap for a strong move back to 7500.
• Expect sideways to up next week. Maybe a test of the middle of that big bull bar at 7600.

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