Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures moved sideways last month in a doji after a High 2 in a small pullback bull trend. Tight trading range and many dojis but bull breakout and follow-through closing on their highs and above the MA so better to be long or flat. Bears can argue a trading range, but I think they are more disappointed with the lack of selling. So probably trend continuation up.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Monthly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went sideways last month with a doji after a High 2 in a bull trend.
- Small pullback bull trend market structure. That means bulls are buying bear bars and fading bear scalp targets. Bears are selling highs and scaling-in higher.
- Bulls will buy pullbacks, trendlines and below bars.
- Most traders should wait for good stop entries near the MA.
- The bulls see breakout and follow-through and they expect a second leg up. They will likely get it.
- The bears see a double top attempt and an inside bar, so breakout mode.
- But the probability is still with the bulls because we are above the 200MA, and getting bull bars closing on their highs above the 20MA.
- Can you buy above the doji? Not a great buy signal and its small so likely we test above and below.
- But the bulls should get 1:1 of their trend bar at least.
- Bears can argue they scaled in below and got out at breakeven.
- If I had gotten out at breakeven and seen the next bar, I would be looking to buy something above now.
- That happens when the probability is about 50/50, the pattern changes and traders have to adapt.
- Probably more buyers below last month, so nothing to sell.
- Bears need a pair of strong bear bars closing below the MA to convince traders we are in a trading range.
- Expect sideways to up next month.
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went sideways to down last week with a bear doji.
- Market structure is a trading range with more than 5 reversals so breakout mode.
- Not great for stop entries, so traders are probably buying below bull bars and taking profits at new highs.
- Even though it is 50/50, bears need to do more to convince traders to hold short.
- Small body and big tail below so a weak sell signal below and weak buy above.
- A pair of dojis is a TTR and a sign of breakout mode. But most traders will look to the pattern or strength before to give guidance on the next move. Likely up.
- The bulls see a breakout and pullback. Strong bull signal bar but big. So some traders wait for the follow-through or buy in the range of that bar.
- Likely buyers below and at the MA.
- Can bears argue disappointing follow-through so sellers above? Lower probability because of the body gap / negative gap below the upsloping MA.
- Bears really need to get below that big bar, then go sideways and finally get a sell signal. So probably more up.
- The bulls want a breakout and a measured move up above the December high to 8000.
- But we could go sideways more and give the bears a chance to get trapped.
- Always in long, so traders should be long or flat.
- Expect sideways to up so the bulls can get at least 1:1 on their strong signal bar.
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