Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures went sideways last week with a 50% pullback to the MA. Its starting to resume the broad bull channel, so it’s better to be looking to buy pullbacks and around the MA. It has been doing this for some time while still in breakout mode. Bears can still fade the top of this trading range, but at some point will get stuck. Currently, they are making money selling good bull bars, so they will keep doing it!
FTSE 100 Futures
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures dropped slightly last week, triggered by a bear doji, a 50% pullback from the MA.
- This week was an outside bar with a bigger bear breakout
- It is the third consecutive bear doji, so breakout mode on a smaller timeframe.
- The bulls see a broad bull channel, breakout mode (BOM), and big bull bars closing on their highs above the MA. So, there is a 60% chance we will go up.
- The bears see multiple double-top bear flags, but they are higher high double tops (HHDTs.) But they have to squeeze their definition slightly. They have not been making lower lows.
- It is more likely to be a trading range above the 200 MA, so trend resumption up is still more likely.
- It’s a doji bar, so a weak signal bar for stop-entry traders. It’s likely the limit order trading, with sellers above and buyers below.
- The bears have been able to sell above swing points. In trading ranges the bvears sell highs and scale in higher. They will continue to do so because they are making money doing this until it fails a few times.
- Bulls want consecutive good bull bars. A bull, breakout.
- The bears want a good failure. Strong bear bars here will believe they are low in a trading range, and it is unlikely that more swing sellers will be found. They need to convince bulls to buy high so they trap themselves.
- The bulls lack urgency here, but they still bought the 50% pullback. The chart shows a target of 2:1 above.
- It is better to be long or flat. Most traders should be flat in BOM.
- But always in long from the context since October, and AIL price action from November maybe?
- Expect sideways to up next week.
The Daily FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went sideways to down last week and on Friday with a bear bar closing near its low with a small tail below touching the MA.
- it follows three consecutive bull bars, two closed above the MA, so a breakout pullback.
- The bulls see a strong bull spike in February to a new 3-monthly high, yet lower than the year’s open. They see a breakout for a second leg, but bears see a triangle – lower highs.
- The bears see a small double-top bear flag, but they have problems at and above the MA.
- If you want to sell, you don’t want to sell just above the MA, and you don’t want to sell after three bull bars.
- But if you’re bullish, why are the 3 bull bars small and overlapping with many tails?
- Trading range price action. Traders are still BLSHS on this timeframe. Strong bull bars reverse down, and strong bear bars reverse up.
- The best place for traders to enter are at extremes when it is most difficult to do so.
- Measured move targets are above as marked on the chart. I don’t have any bear MM targets because we are above the 200 right now and they won’t make sense.
- Better to be long or flat.
- Probably still always in long, the bears never got 2 good bear bars closing on lows and closing below the MA. But ok to be flat and waiting for a better signal bar.
- Expect sideways to up next week.
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