FTSE 100 Surprise Bear BO Below a Wedge, Bull Channel

Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures

The FTSE futures market moved lower strongly last week with a surprise bear BO below a wedge. Traders may expect 2 legs sideways to down. The bulls see a climax bar and will look to reverse it near the 200-week MA. Bears need a follow-through bar next week to try to hit the measured move targets below. Bulls have been buying strongly here for the past 2 years so are likely to continue to do so.

FTSE 100 Futures

The Weekly FTSE chart

• The FTSE 100 futures was a big surprise bear BO bar breaking out below a wedge.
• It is a large bear bar closing on its low so we might gap down on Monday.
• The bulls see a High 2 that failed. But it was a reasonable stop-entry trade, so we will likely test back to their entry.
• The bulls see a bear channel, perhaps broad, perhaps a trading range – but higher highs and higher lows, so ok to buy and buy more lower.
• The bears see a HH DT, a lower-high – so a variation of a MTR. But did it really break a trendline?
• Bears could argue that Oct – Jan 2023 was a collapsed spike – a failed BO above a trading range. If so, the maths is bad for selling so low now.
• The bears want a follow-through next week, so a second leg sideways to down. But at the 200-week MA, it might be difficult to swing.
• The bulls will scale in 2x the bar size expecting to get out at least breakeven. That happens to be the trendline as well, so double support.
• The bulls were disappointed by the collapse at the new ATH, so will look to buy in the lower third—the prior BO point, 7000, trendline – all reasonable mathematical areas.
• Around here, the probability and risk are low without a sell signal, but the reward is high.
• The bears want a measured move from the lower high. They will need next week to show follow-through with a decent body and not a large tail.
• Big bars in trading ranges are often profit-taking bars, so traders will be watching to see if bulls buy strongly here as bears exit.
• Expect sideways to down next week.

The Daily FTSE chart

• The FTSE 100 futures on Friday was a small bear bar with a tail below it.
• It was a surprise bear BO with follow-through and should get a small second leg sideways to down.
• It is still always in short, so traders should be short or flat.
• It is the fifth consecutive bear bar, so a 5-bar bear microchannel and bears will likely sell above the high of the 1^st and 2^nd bars if they are strong bars.
• There is a strong open gap between those bear bars – a breakout on an HTF.
• There is also an open breakout gap below the breakout point. The market should test that breakout point – when the test can fail or succeed.
• We are far from the moving average, so some bears might wait to sell a pullback, two attempts from the bulls first.
• We are at a measured move target for the bears, and their swing target is near the 7000 Big Round Number.
• It is a bear bar, so a sell signal, but low in a developing trading range is a high-probability scalp but can move sharply back up as the math changes.
• The bulls need a buy signal, so until then, we might test the March low or open BO gaps below 7000.
• Gaps close in trading ranges, so they become magnets and targets.
• The bears see a small pullback bull trend, 2 open gaps and a lack of bullish follow-through. They can keep selling as long as no trend line is broken.

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