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Emini lower probability new high after July bull streaks

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Trading Update: Monday July 12, 2021

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Strong bull trend and bull streaks. Friday made another new all-time high.
  • Magnets above are measured move target at 4,404 and top of bull channel around 4,500.
  • Streaks on daily and 60-minute charts ended last week. They increase the chance of exhausted bulls and sideways trading over next week or two. This reduces chance of big move up this week.
  • If reversal down today or tomorrow, then expanding triangle top that began with July 2 high. Easier to see on 60-minute chart.
  • Even if reverses down, odds still favor minor reversal, like all of the other reversals over the past year.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is down 3 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • Friday was a buy climax day so 75% chance of at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading today that starts by the end of the 2nd hour.
  • Magnet below is bottom of most recent buy climax, which is the tight bull channel that began midday Friday at 4351.25.
  • Magnet above is Friday’s all-time high and then the 4404 measured move target.

Friday’s Emini setups

Emini Small pullback bull trend from the open. Emini bull streaks likely ending.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Forex small wedge bottom
  • Reversing up from wedge bottom near bottom of yearlong trading range.
  • Should test June 25 lower high, but might get one more leg down first.
  • Probably buyers below July 7 low. If breakout below that low, should reverse up again and form a bigger wedge bottom.
  • Today is reversing down from small double top with July 7 high.
  • The small wedge bottom should lead to at least a small 2nd leg sideways to up so probably only 1 – 2 day pullback.
  • Traders are deciding if the rally to the June 25 high has begun or if there will be a brief selloff to below the July 7 low before the reversal up.
  • Might form small triangle starting with July 7 high before deciding.
  • Nothing is clear in a trading range, so when nothing is clear (clear means high probability), the market is probably in a trading range. This range began June 18.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

Emini bull trend from the open and then bull trend resumption

End of day summary

  • Weak Bull Trend From The Open, which broke to new all-time high but evolved into trading range.
  • Bulls got a little trend resumption up at end of day.
  • Still strongly bullish on daily, weekly, and monthly charts, so probably limited downside for at least another week.
  • July should close below open of month since 6 consecutive bull bars would be unusual on the monthly chart.
  • With July likely to close below open of month and after 11-day micro channel (buy climax) ended last week, probably limited upside for remainder of month.
  • Since probably will not go far up or down for at least a week, traders should expect the bull trend to evolve into a trading range.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT, which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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