Trading Update: Wednesday February 25, 2026
E-mini end of day video review
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini formed a strong bull reversal bar yesterday following Monday’s downside breakout. The Bears have been trying to get a second leg down after the February 12th strong Bear breakout. However, because the market is in a trading range on the daily chart, there was increased risk that the breakout would fail.
- Most of the Always In Bears would likely exit above yesterday’s high, and that is why today gapped up on the open.
- The bulls are hopeful that the market is strong enough that it will break above the neckline (February 20th) of the seven-day tight trading range. Next, they want a measure move test of the 7,000 round numbers.
- Because of the higher time frames, such as the weekly chart being strongly bullish, with most bars above the moving average, the odds are that this trading range on the daily chart will lead to trend resumption. Even if the bulls do get an upside breakout and a new all-time high, there will likely be sellers somewhere above.
- Traders will pay close attention to see what the follow-through looks like today and tomorrow, following yesterday’s strong bull reversal bar. While the Bulls are hopeful for an upside breakout, the reality is that the market is still in a trading range on the daily chart.
- Because yesterday’s reversal bar is overlapping several bars, it lowers the probability of the breakout. Overlapping bars is a trading range on smaller time frames. Trading ranges are magnets, and this increases the risk that this stop entry will be disappointing and the market will get pulled back into the tight trading range over the past 7 days.
- The single most important thing to recognize on the daily chart is that the market is in a trading range and therefore most breakouts will fail. When the markets are in the middle of a trading range, that is typically the worst place to establish a long or short position. This means most traders are better off waiting to see what the breakout up or down looks like. Even if the bears get a downside breakout in a test of the November 2024 low, the reality is that there will probably be buyers not far below.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped up on the open and has gone sideways for the first 24 bars.
- The gap up is large in size, and because of that, the bulls are hopeful that the market is forming a channel. However, the reality is that, with all the selling pressure and overlapping bars today, the odds are that today is not going to form a bull channel that lasts all day, and instead may form a trending trading range day at best for the bulls.
- The bears are hopeful that the market is forming a double top with bars 5 and 25. Next, the Bears won a break below the neckline, the bar one low, and a measured move down testing yesterday’s high.
- Because of the higher time frame context on the daily chart, traders have to respect the possibility of the Bears getting the downside breakout in the market, testing yesterday’s high.
- The Bulls are still on a swing with bar 18. They are hopeful that the market is going to break above the bar 5 high and rally for a measure move.
- The RTH range is not all that big and will likely get a measure move up or down. Because the market is in a trading range, the probability of the bulls or the bears getting the breakout is close to 50/50.
- The bulls are hopeful that the gap up slightly increases the probability of a second leg up. However, the reality is that the second leg might be the rally from the 18 low to the 25 high. There is still a risk that the bears will get a double top of Bar 5.
- Traders who want a higher probability must wait to see what the breakout up or down of the opening range looks like and decide if it will succeed or fail.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
