Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures
The NASDAQ E-mini futures March 2026 is the first monthly bar at EMA since March 2025. It is a bear bar with prominent tails reversing at the monthly exponential moving average (EMA).
The week is a big bull trend bar reversing at monthly EMA after several weeks of bear bars.
The quarterly bar is a bear trend bar with prominent tails, with a low around the close of the big bull bar from Q2 2025, post-tariffs (See inset chart below).
NASDAQ 100 E-mini futures
The Monthly NASDAQ chart
- The March monthly bar is a bear bar with prominent tails above and below.
- It reversed at the monthly EMA, around the May 2025 high.
- Prior reports from the end of May and June 2025 had said that the high/close of May 2025 was a reasonable sell – it was near the high of the bear bars to the left from March; the quarterly bar was already big at that point, so it was unlikely the 2nd quarter would get any bigger.
- Bears were trapped when June was a good bull follow-through bar, and July was another decent bull bar.
- This area of support around the May high/close is shaded green on the monthly chart.
- On the quarterly chart (See inset chart above), the Q2 2025 bar is a big bull bar, close to the high of the Q1 bear bar. So, there were sellers likely at the Q2 close, not expecting a good bull follow-through in Q3. Q3 2025 is a good bull follow-through, so the sellers at the Q2 close were trapped.
- This month reached various support areas – the monthly EMA, May 2025 high, and Q2 2025 bull close.
- What are some upside targets for the bulls? Using the quarterly chart, the close of Q4 2025 was a reasonable buy, so the market should let those buyers out at breakeven. The close of Q4 2025 is at 25668.25.
- If a bull bought the close of Q4 2025, and the bear close of Q1 2026, the midpoint would be around 24780. That would be another magnet.
- The market essentially bounced on March 31 – the last day of the quarter to produce the tail at the bottom of the monthly and quarterly bar.
- The market hasn’t sufficiently tested the May 2025 close, so the market will likely go back into the body of the May 2025 bull bar.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- This week is a big bull trend bar reversing at the monthly EMA.
- It is a buy signal bar, but the challenge is that the bar is big, and hence the risk is big. Also, the weekly EMA is about a bar size above, so the risk/reward ratio is not best for buying above this week.
- Bulls also expect at least a small second leg down – maybe one bar down, an inside bear bar or such, and then a better buy signal bar.
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