Trading Update: Thursday June 18, 2026
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The daily chart has been a tight bull channel for the past several weeks.
- Recently, the daily chart sold off to the June 11 low, creating a trend line break; because the channel was strong to the upside, the odds favored a trading range and buyers on any pullback.
- This led to a reversal up, testing 7,600 on June 15.
- The three-bar bull micro channel up to June 15 was strong enough for traders to expect a second leg up and for the first reversal down to be minor.
- The bears got a bear inside bar on June 16, and during the FOMC announcement yesterday, the bears broke to the downside, closing below the breakout point.
- The bears are hopeful that the bear reversal and follow-through over the past two days are strong enough for a second leg down.
- The bulls want today to form a High 1 buy signal bar closing on its high, which would increase the odds of a second leg up and a test of the all-time high.
- At the moment, today’s bar is a bull bar closing on its high.
- The bears are hopeful that they can create selling pressure before the end of the day, creating a tail above today’s bar.
- Overall, the bulls want a High 1 buy signal bar today, closing on its high, and the bears want to prevent it — at a minimum, they want to create a tail above the bar, which would increase the odds of sellers above and a second leg down.
- At the moment, the odds favor a second leg up and a test of the all-time high, even if the market gets a small second leg down first in a test of the June 16 low.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped up on the open; the gap up was strong, which increased the odds of a trading range open and of the bulls trying to get a second leg up.
- The bears got a strong reversal on bars 1 and 2, testing near the moving average around bar 3; it was a strong enough three-bar micro channel that the odds favored sellers above, but because of the big gap up and the sell-off to bar 3 — big up, big down, big confusion — a trading range was most likely.
- The bulls ended up getting a second entry by bar 6 and a rally up to bar 18.
- The bulls tried to get the upside breakout in a bull breakout of a bull flag, but because of all the selling pressure, the bears got a reversal down and tested the low of the day with bar 26.
- Bar 27 formed a Low 1 short after consecutive sell climaxes near the low of the day, which increased the odds of the market going sideways, with the bears buying back their shorts.
- The bulls got a strong upside breakout on bars 28, 29, and 30, which was a strong enough reversal that the odds favored a second leg up and a test of the open of the day, which the bulls got on bar 46.
- As of bar 46, the bulls have a strong rally with bars 42 to 46, but it is late in a bull channel within an overall trading range, which lowers the probability that this channel will last for the rest of the day and increases the odds that it is part of an overall trading range.
- If the market continues to go sideways around bar 47, that will build selling pressure and increase the odds of the bears getting a reversal down and testing the bar 42 low.
- Overall, today is more likely to be a trading range day than the start of a strong bull trend.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
