Gold GC-Mini Market Analysis
The Gold GC-mini weekly bears printed a strong bar closing on its low; however the body does not close beneath the neckline of the most recent pivot. Bears want to drop prices beneath that pivot and then below the psychological 4000 mark. The bulls are trying to form a double bottom, but the signal bars have been poor, and buyers simply are not finding value at these levels. When prices grind lower, it’s often a bear channel. Bears are maintaining a large gap between price and the moving average, indicating selling pressure is strong and consistent. Bears are finding value in the pullbacks as opposed to abandoning their positions.
For the bulls, the price action is frustrating. The market has been putting in a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe. Every time the bulls attempt to rally, their rallies are weak, overlapping, and get swiftly rejected. These are bear flags.
Bulls are hoping to keep prices from making a new lower low. If they do prevent that while creating a higher high, then a fresh bull channel has a chance of developing.
Gold GC-mini futures
The Weekly Gold chart
- Strong bear bar closing on its low.
- 3 bear bars in a row. 2 of which show considerable strength with significant bodies and closing at their lows.
- 7 of the past 9 bars have been bearish.
- Bears trying to get another leg down that nearly matches the previous leg.
- Bears trying to get another leg down that nearly matches the previous leg.
- Bears widen the gap between price and the moving average.
- Sellers were waiting just above last week’s bar.
- There was a body gap between last week’s open and the week prior to that. This shows enthusiasm on the part of the bears. An opening gap is often a signal that price will continue in the direction of the gap.
- The large bear leg down can be broken down in a fractal 3 leg push.
- Trendline support has become resistance.
The Daily Gold chart
- Bears sold the moving average.
- The 20MA moved beneath the 200MA.
- Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday formed a micro-wedge.
- Previous support is still holding up.
- Bulls want to protect support to prevent bears from going parabolic.
- Bulls want to create a double bottom reversal.
- The past 6 consecutive bars closed under the moving average. 5 of these bars have been bearish.
- Bears want to continue another leg down, potentially becoming a measured move of the previous leg.
- The week opened with a large gap up, a result of news of a possible war resolution between Iran and the United States. This gap was quickly filled by the stronger bears.
- Thursday opened with an even more extreme gap down than Monday’s gap up. Thursday’s price did move higher to fill the gap with an upper tail, however this was treated as an opportunity for stuck bulls to get out of their positions and bears to take momentum advantage of bulls selling.
- Bears are treating pullbacks as discounted entries.
- 27 consecutive bars closed beneath the moving average. 15 of these bars have been bearish.
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