Trading Update: Thursday June 25, 2026
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The daily chart is continuing to form a triangle, which is a breakout-mode environment, following the strong rally up to the June all-time high.
- Because the channel up was tight, the odds are the bulls will get the upside breakout and the market will go above the most recent all-time high from June 2.
- It is reasonable for the bears to get a test down to the June 10 Low 1 short, which is also near the bottom of the trend line breakdown to the June low.
- When the market forms a triangle, it is in breakout mode, and it is important to recognize and remember that the probabilities are very close to 50/50.
- In general, establishing any position in the middle of the range is fairly low probability.
- Most traders are going to be better off waiting for the breakout, up or down, and assessing its strength.
- At the moment, I suspect there are likely buyers below willing to scale in lower, and the math is probably easier for the bulls willing to buy and scale in lower.
- Overall, the odds are the daily chart is going to continue to go sideways for the next several weeks, and likely the next several months, with the market oscillating and forming a larger trading range that will likely contract.
- The key thing to remember is that whatever sell-off we get will probably be minor.
- That increases the odds that there will be buyers scaling in lower, which will likely lead to a test of the all-time high at some point.
- The rally up to the June 15 breakout was strong enough that the odds favor a second leg, and it is possible the sell-off to today’s low is just a prolonged deep pullback before the bulls get their second leg.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today gapped up on the open and sold off sharply for the first 6 bars of the day.
- While the sell-off was strong, it was likely to form a trading range.
- The bulls had a strong rally up to bar 81 yesterday, and today’s sell-off from bar 1 to bar 6 was climactic, which increased the risk that the sell-off to bar 6 was a sell-climax test of support.
- Whenever you get a strong rally or sell-off on the open, it is fairly common for the market to evolve into a trading range.
- Because the market is in an overall trading range on the higher time frame, this further increased the probability that traders would be disappointed.
- The bears who sold the close of bar 6 got trapped by a strong reversal up on bars 7 and 8, so it is reasonable to think the market will have to retest the bar 6 close at some point today.
- The bulls got a spike and channel, with the spike ending on bar 8; the market then pulled back and rallied up to bar 15.
- The bears got a strong trend line break down to bar 21, and the market has now evolved into a trading range.
- As of bar 34, the bears are hopeful that the market is forming a lower high and will sell off back down to the bar 6 close, with the four consecutive bear bars to bar 36 giving them a shot at reaching it.
- The bulls are hopeful that the sell-off to bars 22 and 37 is just a two-legged pullback that will lead to a higher low.
- At the moment, the market is contracting and entering breakout mode.
- Because of the overall selling pressure today, there is increased risk that the market will test down to the bar 6 close at some point today.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
