Trading Update: Mon July 7, 2025
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a strong rally at the end of June. Traders will see this as strong momentum into the close of the 2nd quarter.
- The rally has broken above the 6,300 round number and the December 2024 highs.
- While this is good for the bulls, the risk is getting big. This increases the odds of a pullback soon and sideways trading.
- The moving average is getting far from the current price. Since the moving average reflects the fair price, traders will begin to view the market as overvalued.
- Once the momentum begins to slow down, traders will start to hesitate buying up here, until the price can correct closer to the moving average.
- The bears need to create more selling pressure if they are going to get a credible reversal down.
- Overall, because of how overbought the daily chart is, the odds favor a pullback lasting a couple of legs down.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped up and formed an opening reversal down after bar 6.
- The bears managed to get a selloff down to the bar 23 low.
- While the channel down is tight, the selloff has a lot of buying pressure. This increases the odds of the selloff evolving into a bear leg in what will become a trading range.
- The bulls need to make the market go sideways and add to the buying pressure. This would increase the odds of getting a reversal back up to the 16 breakout point low.
- The bears want to do their best to continue the tight bear channel and have today form a bear trend day closing on its low. while this is possible, at the moment it is unlikely. More likely today will form a trading range day.
Last Wednesday’s Emini setups
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from last Wednesday (before US holiday break). I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.
Emini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
