Market Overview: Bitcoin
Bitcoin has ended a 4-week bull micro channel this week. Next week marks the monthly bar close. So far this month, price rose about 8%. There’s a real chance the month closes below its midpoint, raising odds of testing $100,000 in August. Bulls aim for a close near the high to show resilience.
Bitcoin
The Weekly chart of Bitcoin
Context and Transition
Bitcoin traded in a wide range for eight months in 2024. Breaking above the range high completed a measured move. Early 2025 showed a double-top and strong bear surprise bar, shifting bias to “always in short” (expecting downward pressure). Bears expected a second leg down or sideways, but failed due to:
- Big lower tail on the surprise bar signaling selling exhaustion.
- Price re-entering double-top zone and closing breakout gap.
- Bears not gaining control.
- 12-month moving average overlapping 2024 breakout zone as support.
Shift Back to Long
Q1 2025 saw a 30% drop from Q4 2024 highs, triggering institutional buys. A High-3 pattern (technical reversal) formed. A strong bull bar closed above 3-month moving average, flipping bias to “always in long” (upward bias). Drawdown recovered; price entered bull micro-channel and cup-and-handle pattern. Markets resist quick shifts; rallying from short to bull has edge. First pullbacks in new bull legs rarely reverse.
A tight sideways-to-down pause ended with High-2 buy signal two weeks ago.
High-2 Mechanics
High-2 triggered legitimate entry. Follow-through was weak, but bulls held against Q2 sellers. Buying above all-time high was better entry. Bulls targeted bull breakout to $120,000, achieved last week. Expected profit-taking at $120,000–$123,000 due to monthly measured move resistance.
Bad Follow-Through
Profit-taking created bad follow-through for bull breakout, undermining momentum. Price likely drifts into trading range in next 9 bars. Reduces odds of cup-and-handle measured move. High odds of pullback this week or next.
Pullback and Quality of Bull Breakout
This week, price traded below the prior weekly low. Prior bar was bear reversal. Current bar neutral—not bearish or bullish, bad for bulls. Bull leg quality low: 6 bars with only 2 good bull bars, 2 dojis, 2 bear bars.
What Now
Market in tight bull channel, but bulls weakening weekly. Bulls need strength: new highs or strong reversal if testing breakout point down.
Conclusion
Bull thesis weaker today. No strong bears yet. Without bull strength soon, price may return to $100,000 area.
The Daily chart of Bitcoin
Trading Range
Daily chart in two-month trading range. Bears failed two breakdowns; bulls broke out on third try.
Bull Breakout
Breakout initially strong for bulls. Rally stalled at daily and monthly measured-move targets—typical profit-taking.
Time for Bulls to Assess Strength
Bulls reached target, now assessing. Bears failed to shift to “always in short.” Tuesday’s “OO” setup (bullish in context) failed for bulls.
Tight Trading Range
Now a tight trading range, balancing bull/bear odds. Not good for bulls after failing “OO” and trend resumption. Milestone for bears, fail for bulls. Market in Breakout Mode.
50% Pull Back
Price hit 50% pullback of bull breakout, reversed back to tight range. No bullish action yet. 50% pullback hints breakout was leg in trading range, not trend start.
Trading Range or Broad Bull Channel
Market likely in Trading Range or Broad Bull Channel, not Bull Trend. In Broad Bull Channel: scalp shorts at higher highs, buy bottom third for scalp/swing. Closes most gaps. Selling easier than buying—bears confident, bulls not. Bull breakout of tight range likely fails: either limited (broad bull channel) or starts bear leg (trading range).
Trading Implications
Tight trading ranges bad for trades—avoid positioning. Wait for breakout. In context: fade bull breakout (sell high). Strong bear breakout might be sold on close, with scalp room to $105,000 (prior range apex).
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
