Trading Update: Tuesday September 30, 2025
E-mini end of day video review
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S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini yesterday formed a bear reversal bar closing above its midpoint. The hesitation yesterday following Thursday’s high one-by is a warning that the bulls are not eager to buy up here.
- Yesterday formed a weak breakout pullback sell, which is a Low 1 short. This increases the odds that the market will find buyers below yesterday’s low and get a second leg up, testing the September 22nd high.
- The market’s been in a tight bull channel for several months. Although last week’s rally was climactic, a trader who is willing to buy at the high close of the bull channel and scale in lower will likely make money. This means the market will likely have to test the high close before the bears have a chance at a credible reversal.
- The Bears see last Thursday (September 25th) as a weak buy signal bar that’ll likely have sellers above the bar. This means that traders willing to sell above the high of last Thursday and scale in higher will probably make money. Because of this, the odds favor a test of last Thursday’s high over the next couple of days.
- Overall, the daily chart is likely to form more selling pressure to convince traders that the bears are gaining control.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today formed a small gap down and has gone sideways for the first 30 bars of the day, forming an expanding triangle.
- This increases the odds that the rest of the day is going to have a lot of trading range price action.
- Yesterday’s low has been an area of support and will likely continue to be support for the rest of the day.
- Because yesterday formed a spike and a broad channel to the downside late in the day, it’s possible that the market is forming part of the bear channel today. This increases the odds that if the market is going to experience a breakout, it’ll likely be to the upside.
- Overall, today has had a lot of trading range price action, and because of the higher time frame context, the odds are that if the market is going to get a rally, it will probably be to the upside.
- Traders should expect today to continue to have a lot of disappointment. Disappointment is the hallmark of a trading range. Until there is a clear breakout with follow-through beyond the range, traders should assume that the trading range will likely persist for the remainder of the day.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
