Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures
The NASDAQ E-mini futures week is a bear bar with a first close below monthly EMA since March 2025. The EMA is the 20-period exponential moving average.
The daily chart had a big pullback Monday, followed by sideways for a couple days, and then a bear resumption.
There are two more trading days left in the month and the first quarter. Given the market is at the monthly EMA, bulls want to create as long a tail on the monthly and quarterly bars as possible, though they will not have much time.
Regardless, it is likely that there is buying/short covering into the early part of April as sellers want to sell higher.
On the quarterly chart, the market is back at the close of the Q2 2025 big bull bar, post the tariffs. There were likely trapped bears at this place, as sellers were expecting at least a small second leg down, and not a good bull follow-through in Q3 2025. This, along with the fact that the market is at the monthly EMA, should result in at least a bounce next month.
NASDAQ 100 E-mini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bear bar with a tail on the top and closing near its low below the monthly EMA.
- Last week’s report said that it’s likely the market will make the monthly EMA, as there is no obvious strong support before the monthly EMA.
- This is the first time since March 2025 that the market is below the monthly EMA.
- Bulls want to add as much of a tail below the monthly bar as well as create a good buy signal bar in the next several weeks.
- At this point, the best the bulls will get is likely a bull leg in a trading range between the monthly and weekly EMAs, unless they can manage to get back sufficiently above the weekly EMA as they did in April 2025.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- Monday is a big bull bar at one point, reversing the big bear bar the prior Friday and selling off around the high/open of that Friday bar.
- Last week’s report said three things:
- Monday is not likely to be a bear trend follow-through bar
- The market should close the open bear body gap with the low close from 11-20-2025, given that the market is in a trading range.
- There would likely be sellers around the high/open of the Friday big bear bar.
- Well, the market met two of those expectations and did reach the bear body gap, and found sellers, but the bear body gap remains open.
- Tuesday and Wednesday are doji bear bars representing sideways action and the market deciding what to do after the big down/big up.
- Thursday and Friday are bear trend bars with Friday closing below the monthly EMA.
- In doing so, the market has also opened a bear body gap with the low close of 9-2-2025.
- Once the market forms a couple of open body gaps, the market is in a trend.
- At this point, the market is also sufficiently below the trading range between the November low and the high close in January, so one bear target is a measured move (MM) down of the range. This is around 22840, which is reachable from where the market is currently.
- As it stands, the market has already made the measured move of the body of the 3 bear trend bars leading up to 2-5.
- The one tricky thing standing in the way of the trend is the monthly EMA.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
