Trading Update: Monday May 11, 2026
E-mini end of day video review
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- E-mini continues to form a tight bull channel on the daily chart, and it has spent more than 21 bars away from the moving average. While the channel is strong, it is continuing to get more climactic. This increases the odds that the market is going to start going sideways fairly soon.
- While the odds favor sideways trading, the downside is limited, and because of this, bulls will continue to buy and would like to buy more, confident that the trading range is more likely than the start of a bear trend.
- Even if the bears get a sharp reversal down, there will likely be buyers around the moving average and the 7,200 round number.
- Until the bears can develop more selling pressure and realistically develop a credible Major Trend Reversal, the best the bears can hope for is a trading range lasting for several months.
- The initial downside risk is limited for the Bulls. However, because the rally was so strong and climactic, it is possible that the market has to test back down to 7,000 over the next several months. Even if it does, it’ll likely rally back to the all-time high before the bears can get some credible topping pattern.
- The channel up is tight, and it is a breakout on a higher time frame. This reduces the probability of the bears getting a strong reversal down and increases the probability of lots of trading range price action to continue for the next several months.
- Overall, while the bulls have done a great job with the rally, it’s getting climactic. The 7,500 round number is likely to act as a strong resistance level. If the market does reach 7,500, there will likely be sellers around that location, and the market will pull back. It’s important to realize that when a channel is tight, most resistance levels are going to fail. Therefore, a trader must be respectful of the fact that the market is in a strong bull trend. This means that, in general, traders should not consider looking to short and only look to buy pullbacks.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- E-mini gapped down on the open and formed a strong bull bar, closing on its high with bar 1. Bar 1 had no tail below the bar, which is a sign of strong buying. This made bar 1 strong enough to get at least some kind of second leg up, which it did on bar 3 and bar 4.
- The breakout on bars 3 and 4 was strong enough to get another rally up, which extended to bar 11. The rally from the bar 1 low to the bar 11 high was strong and climactic. This increased the odds that the market was going to get some pullback, but even if it did, there were likely to be buyers not far below.
- The bears got a strong reversal down on bar 12, but it was likely a leg in a trading range and not the start of a bear trend. Because the rally up to bar 11 was strong, traders looked to buy around the midpoint of that rally.
- The bulls reversed the sell-off on bar 12 with the rally up to bar 18, which trapped the bears into bad sells. The bears who went short during bar 12 or above bar 11 got trapped, and many of them looked to buy back their shorts on bar 21, which is why traders bought there.
- The bulls expected a second leg up after the rally to bar 18, which they got to bar 25. As of bar 36, the market formed a tight bull channel with lots of overlapping bars; however, all the bars are above the moving average.
- The reality is that the market is probably going to start forming a trading range soon, and today is likely to be a trending trading range day and not a bull trend lasting all day. The bears need to start making money below bars to prove that they are in control. Because the bears have been making money with limit orders above bars for most of the day, that increases the odds that today is going to form some trending trading range.
Friday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
