Trading Update: Tuesday September 23, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini formed a large buy climax bar yesterday, closing on its high. This is an exhaustion bar late in the bull trend, which increases the odds of sellers above and the market testing the bottom 1/3rd of yesterday’s bar.
- Yesterday is enough of a surprise that the Bulls may need at least a small second leg up.
- However, if the Bulls do get a small second leg up, the upside will likely be limited.
- Bulls may see yesterday’s upside breakout as an opportunity to maximize profits, as the risk is getting large.
- While the rally up from the September 2nd low has been relatively strong, it’s getting more and more climactic.
- At some point, bulls are not going to buy this far from the moving average. If there’s no one willing to buy at this price level, the market will have to pull back to find buyers.
- Because this is momentum buying, if the Bears get a reversal bar closing on its low today or in the next few days, that might be enough for bulls to take profits below the bar, leading to a couple of legs down.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today formed a small gap up and went sideways for the first 9 bars of the day. Because of yesterday’s strong climax bar, there is an increased risk that today will be a disappointment bar for the bulls.
- As of bar 30, the bears managed to get an endless pullback in a tight bear channel ever since the 9-high.
- The market is currently Always In Short. However, due to the overlapping bars, there’s an increased risk that the Bears will make a deep pullback after the sell-off to the bar 30 low.
- Because of all the selling pressure, today is probably not going to be a bull trend day, and therefore, it will either be a trading range day or a bear trend day.
- Even though the sell-off down to bar 30 has a lot of overlap, it’s a breakout on a higher time frame. This increases the odds that the first reversal up will be minor, and the market will at least have to go sideways and form a trading range before the bulls can achieve a significant reversal up.
- The risk of the bulls is that today remains a bear trend day.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
