Trading Update: Monday March 4, 2024
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini rallied above the February 23rd high last Friday. The bulls want follow-through buying today and another strong bull close on the daily chart.
- More likely, today will disappoint the bulls and not be another strong bull close on the daily chart.
- The bulls hope to continue to create negative gaps on the daily chart, which would increase the odds of an upside breakout.
- While the bears are beginning to develop more selling pressure by getting to the moving average, they have not done enough.
- The market is still Always In Long, meaning the odds favor higher prices.
- The bears need to get closes below the moving average as a further sign of strength and control of the market.
- Without closes below the moving average, the market will likely continue to go sideways to up.
- Even if the market gets 2-3 closes below the moving average, the odds will still favor a trading range more than a bear trend.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 12 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market has been drifting sideways to down for the past several hours.
- The selloff looks like a bear leg in a trading range and just a pullback following last Friday’s rally.
- Traders should be prepared for a possible early low of the U.S. Session.
- Last Friday was a buy signal bar for the bulls, which means they will try to trigger it by going above it during the U.S. session.
- Traders should expect a trading range open lasting at least 6-12 bars. This means the best thing a trader can do on the open is to be patient and wait for some strong breakout with follow-through or for the market to form a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a Bull Bar yesterday, which is a second entry buy.
- The bulls are hopeful that today will create a strong entry bar today and break above the February 22nd high.
- The bears want to disappoint the bulls by creating a bear bar today.
- Overall, the daily chart is converting into a trading range and will probably begin to test prior major lower highs back in January.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
