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EURUSD Is Testing the Middle of the Trading Range

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

EURUSD is testing the middle of the trading range, which is an area of balance and a magnet. Bulls want a retest of the January 27 high, followed by a strong breakout above. Bears want a reversal from a wedge top, a lower high major trend reversal, and a head and shoulders top.

EURUSD Forex market

The Monthly EURUSD Forex chart

Eurusd Monthly - Middle of TR, Area of Balance, EURUSD Is Testing the Middle of the Trading Range
  • April formed a bull bar closing in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
  • Last month, we said the market remains in a trading range and traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
  • The market traded higher but closed near the middle of the range.
  • Bulls see the 11-month trading range as a large bull flag — a 25% pullback from the January 2025 rally — and want trend resumption from a double bottom bull flag (August 1 and March 30).
  • They want a retest of the January 27 high, followed by a strong breakout above.
  • Bulls want a measured move based on the height of the trading range, targeting the 2018 high area.
  • Bulls need consecutive strong bull bars breaking above the top of the trading range and the bear trend line to increase the odds of trend resumption.
  • Bears want a reversal from a wedge top (July 1, September 17, January 27), a lower high major trend reversal (April 17), and a head and shoulders top (September 17, January 27, April 17).
  • Bears need consecutive strong bear bars breaking below the 20-month EMA and the August 1 low to shift the market into Always In Short.
  • If the market trades higher, bears want it to stall around the February 10 high, forming a double top bear flag, or below the January 27 high, with the bear trend line acting as resistance.
  • The market remains in an 11-month trading range.
  • Until there is a decisive breakout, traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH), buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
  • The middle of the range, around 1.174, can act as a magnet and area of balance.

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly - PB to EMA, Bulls Want 2nd Leg Up
  • This week formed a bull doji closing in its lower half with a prominent tail above.
  • Last week, we said traders would watch whether bears could create bear bars breaking below the 20-week EMA, or whether the move would stall around it. A weak, sideways pullback increases the odds of a second leg sideways to up to retest the trading range high.
  • The market tested below the 20-week EMA but did not close below it.
  • Recently, bulls retested near the trading range high following a two-bar reversal (March 3 and March 13), a higher low major trend reversal (March 30), and a large double bottom bull flag (August 1 and March 13).
  • Bulls see the past two weeks as a pullback and want the 20-week EMA to act as support, leading to a second leg sideways to up.
  • They want a strong breakout above the trading range, followed by a measured move based on its height, targeting the 2018 high.
  • Bulls view the 47-week trading range as a large bull flag — a 25% pullback from the January 2025 rally — and want trend resumption.
  • They need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs, breaking above the top of the trading range and the bear trend line (drawn across the February 2018 and January 2021 highs), to increase the odds of trend resumption.
  • Bears see the April 17 move as a bull leg within a trading range and a retest of the January 27 high.
  • They want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal and a head and shoulders top (September 17, January 27, April 17), followed by a retest and breakout below the trading range low.
  • If the market trades higher, they want the April 17 high, February 10 high or the bear trend line (drawn across the February 2018 and January 2021 highs) to act as resistance.
  • Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows below the 20-week EMA to show control.
  • The market tested the near trading range high (April 17) and pulled back to the middle of the range (around the 20-week EMA).
  • The middle of the range is an area of balance and often acts as a magnet.
  • Traders will watch whether bears can create bear bars breaking below the 20-week EMA, or whether the move stalls around it. A weak, sideways pullback increases the odds of a second leg sideways to up.
  • For now, the market remains within a trading range with a slight sideways-to-up bias.
  • Price remains within the 47-week range. Until there is a clear breakout with strong follow-through, traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH) — buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.

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