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Emini Buyers below Last Thursday’s Low

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Trading Update: Monday February 10, 2025

Emini end of day video review

Emini EOD Review Joseph Imbornone

Follow Joseph’s YouTube channel for more Al Brooks price action analysis.

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed an outside down bear reversal bar last Friday, closing near its low. However, the reversal bar is following a four-bar bull micro channel, which increases the odds of a 2nd leg up and buyers below last Thursday’s low.
  • Last Friday is enough of a surprise that there is an increased risk of a 2nd leg down.
  • The daily chart is in the middle of a tight trading range, which makes the probability close to 50% of the bulls or bears getting the successful breakout of the range.
  • Because the daily chart has been in a bull trend, the odds slightly favor the bulls, but not by much.
  • The bears are hopeful that last Friday will form a lower high major trend reversal that will lead to a successful reversal below the January low.
  • It will become a higher probability for the bears if they can form a series of bear bars closing near their lows. Without a clear downside breakout, the odds favor more trading range price action.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Last night, the Globex market gapped down on the open and formed a strong bull reversal early in the session. This increased the odds of a second leg up during the early morning hours.
  • The bulls are hopeful that the overnight buying pressure has developed strong enough momentum to the upside that it will lead to strong buying pressure on the open of the U.S. Session.
  • As of 9:00 AM EST, the Emini will open 30 points above last Friday’s close. This is a large enough gap up that the odds will favor a second leg up. This means that the first reversal down is likely minor, meaning that the odds will favor any selloff forming a trading range and not a bear trend.
  • In general, on any open, there is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open up or down.
  • Because there is an 80% chance of a trading range open, most traders will be better off waiting for 6-12 bars before placing a trade.
  • There is an 80% chance that the initial breakout up or down will have a minor reversal and get a pullback, meaning that a trader can wait for an initial breakout to develop and wait to enter on a pullback.
  • There is a 50% chance that the initial breakout up or down will lead to a major reversal (strong breakout) in the opposite direction.
  • The most important thing on the open is to be patient and not rush to place a trade.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bull Trap Then Breakout and Channel Bear Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Wedge Top and Then DB and Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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