Trading Update: Monday September 12, 2022
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The bulls have three consecutive bull bars, all closing near their highs. This is good for the bulls, and the market is currently Always In Long.
- The bulls want to close the August 24 breakout point low, and eventually, they want to test the August high and break above it.
- The problem the bulls have is that the overall market is in a trading range, and the bulls will probably be disappointed after a couple of legs up.
- The past three consecutive bull bars are strong enough that the bulls will probably get at least a small second leg up.
- The bulls hope to get a measured move up of the past three bull bars and a close above the August 26 high.
- While at the moment, the bulls are looking good, one must remember that the current rally may be a buy vacuum test of the August 24 low, however as I said above, the first reversal down will likely fail, which means traders will be confident of at least a second leg up.
- The bears want the current rally to lead to a lower high below the August 26 high and continue making lower highs and lows.
- It would be good for the bears if they could keep the August 24 breakout point gap open.
- The bears also want this three-bar rally to be a second leg trap; however, even if it is and the market tests the September 7 low, there will probably be buyers not far below, and the market would try and form a double bottom.
- Overall, the market may form a triangle here as the bulls want higher lows and the bears wish to lower highs.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 20 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market sold off early in the overnight session and has been in a rally since the early morning.
- The bulls have three consecutive bull closes on the daily chart and will probably be disappointed today or tomorrow. This means traders should expect a trading range open and possibly a trading range day.
- As I often say, traders should be patient and not be in a rush to trade the first 6-12 bars. The market will probably go sideways, and any breakout will be minor and not go far. This means there is no rush to miss something on the open.
- Traders can also wait for a credible top or bottom, such as a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- If today is going to be an intense trend day, there will be plenty of time to enter the trend, so there is no rush.
- Traders should also pay attention to the open of the day, especially if it is in the middle of the day’s range, because the market will likely have a hard time getting far away from it.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The market is testing the middle of the July – August trading range.
- The bulls have a 5-bar bull micro channel which is good; however, the bulls currently only have one bull bar closing on its high. This is trading range price action and increases the odds of it being a bull leg in a TR.
- The bulls want today to close on its high, increasing the odds of the market being Always In Long.
- The bears see the current rally as a leg up in a broad bear channel and expect a lower high.
- The overall problem with the bear case is that the market has been in a bear channel since June 2021. The odds favor a bull rally for several months starting soon.
- Also, the market is close to crucial support, the 1.000 big round number, and will probably have much trouble getting far below it.
- Ultimately, the bulls need a decisive breakout above the August 10 major lower high to convince traders that the bulls have taken over.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.