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Emini Pullback Likely

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Trading Update: Thursday November 16, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a bear bar yesterday, creating a hesitation bar on the daily chart, following Tuesday’s upside breakout. This increases the odds of a pullback lasting a day or two.
  • The bulls expect buyers below any pullback, forming the market to continue the rally. They are hopeful for a test of September 1st, which is the start of the bear channel that ended in late October.
  • The risk for the bulls is getting big; many will begin to take partial profits. This increases the odds of a pullback lasting at least a few bars.
  • However, any reversal down will likely be minor and lead to a trading range or a bull flag. This means that bulls will probably look to buy any pullback.
  • The bears must halt the buying pressure to have a chance at forming a successful reversal. Next, they will need to develop more bear bars closing on their lows. The odds will still favor a trading range even if they accomplish this.
  • Overall, the market will probably go sideways for at least a few days.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is down 6 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • Traders should expect the market to go sideways on the open and form a trading range. This means that most traders should be patient on the open, and consider not trading for the first 6 -12 bars. Unless they can trade with limit orders and make quick decisions.
  • Most traders should focus on catching the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is common for the market to form a double top/bottom, or a wedge top/bottom before the opening swing begins. This means traders can wait for one of the above-mentioned patterns to form before placing a trade.

Emini intraday market update

  • The Emini rallied and formed a bull trend from the open for the first 6 bars of the day. However, the bulls failed, and the trading range continued.
  • The bears sold off down to bar 24 and reversed up near the moving average.
  • As of bar 36, the market is Always In Long, and the market will likely get a second leg up.
  • Bar 11 was a big bull reversal bar that failed. It was reasonable to buy above bar 11 and scale in lower. This means that the market may rally back up to the 11 high to allow the trapped bulls out.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Wedge Top and Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Parabolic Wedge Top Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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