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I don't understand why in this case Al calls this 50 bars into a bear trend, when there is clearly a 20+ bar TTR before it (the rectangle highlighted in Yellow) . In other videos he says that a 20 bar TTR is Breakout mode and becomes 50/50 again.
I am wrong to see that as a 20+ bar TTR, it's clearly sideways for 20+ bars.
Hello Fabian, I think AL's ideia is that the Bear Trend wasn't invalidated since the market did not surpass the MLH (High of bar 15) of your chart.
The 50/50 BO you are talking about refers to the TTR and not the Bear Trend.
My perspective would be thinking about it like this, imagine a Triangle (BOM) within a Trading Range. You have 50% chance of breaking out up or down of that triangle and then 50% chance of that BO failing, but once the BO happens it does not mean you broke-out of the Trading Range.
It is a pattern inside of a pattern.
In the example that you put, a Break above the TTR does not mean a MHL Break.
Well, this is my option 🙂 .
