Trading Update: Thursday December 11, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The daily chart of the E-mini is continuing to go sideways, forming a lot of overlapping bars in the upper portion of a trading range. This is breakout mode following the late November reversal up.
- The bulls are still hoping that the sideways trading over the past two weeks is a bull flag that will lead to an upside breakout and a test of the all-time high as well as the 7,000 round number.
- At the moment, the market is likely Always In Long, and will probably get a second leg up.
- The problem for the bulls is that the market is in the upper third of a trading range from the October high down to the November low.
- Because the market is high in a trading range, there’s increased risk of the bulls getting a deeper pullback than they’d like.
- November 20th was a large bear trend bar that was strong enough to likely have sellers above the bar when the market tested it on November 25th. Instead of the market finding sellers at the November 20th high, the market broke above it, trapping the bears.
- This makes the November 20th high a logical test magnet as well as an area of support. It is also near the 6,800 round number, and therefore, another reason for the market to find buyers at that price level.
- Overall, the market is continuing to remain in breakout mode and is deciding if the market is going to pull back on the daily chart or if the bulls are strong enough to get the rally and test up to 7,000 without a pullback.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- E-mini gapped down on the open, and formed a second leg down to bar 5 after going sideways on the open for the first 3 bars of the day.
- When the market forms a gap on the open, it’s considered a breakout. Breakouts typically get second legs, which is why the market formed bars 4 and 5.
- While bars 4 and 5 are good for the bears, the bars were big, and it was near the support of yesterday’s 54 low. This increased the risk of bars 4 and 5 forming a second leg trap and getting a reversal up, which it did during bars 7 through 11.
- At the moment, the rally up to Bar 11 is strong enough to get a second leg up.
- This means that the pullback down to Bar 17 is likely minor, and the bulls will probably go above the 12 high later today.
- One thing that’s important to remember on the open is that, in general, there’s a 50% chance that whatever direction you get initially on the open is in the wrong direction. This makes selling large bars, such as bars 4 and 5, on the open lower probability trades, especially when the sell-off is testing support, such as the 54 low.
- These trades are particularly dangerous because the breakout bars (4 and 5) are bigger than the average bars. On the open, it is common for the volatility to increase in the range, expand, and later in the day, the range will often contract. If a trader takes a large loss on the open, it will make it difficult for the trader to make a profit before the end of the day, which is why many traders are cautious about big bars on the open.
- Overall, the rally up to bar 11 is strong enough for a second leg up, and because of that, there’s increased probability that the pullback to bar 23 and 24 is likely a bull flag that will lead to a test of the 12 high.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. Chart shows each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of the Brooks Trading Course have access to a near 4-year library of detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups) linked to the Brooks Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns product.
The goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
