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E-Mini Momentum Slowing Down

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Trading Update: Thursday August 14, 2025

S&P E-mini market analysis

E-mini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a weak follow-through bar after Tuesday’s Strong Bowl breakout. This is a reminder of the hesitation that’s likely to occur above the July all-time high and the momentum for the bulls slowing down.
  • While the Bears have done a good job limiting the follow-through buying after Tuesday’s breakout, they need to do more than create a doji.
  • The Bears need to halt the buying and make the market go sideways for several bars. If they can develop enough selling pressure, they’ll have a chance at getting a reversal down.
  • Even if they get the reversal down, the rally up from the August low is strong, and that lowers the probability of the bulls getting a successful higher high major trend reversal without first creating a lower high. This means that even if the bears do get the reversal down, the market will probably have to retest the current high and develop a lower high, which can also be thought of as a head and shoulders top.
  • Because of the reasons stated above, the risk of the Bears missing a strong sell-off is low without the market first going sideways.
  • The bulls will still see the market as a bull trend as long as the market continues to form higher lows and higher highs.
  • Even though the market went below the July 16th low, traders can argue that it was a minor high or low, and therefore, the bull trend is still intact.
  • The Bears ultimately need to get the market below the August 1st low to end the argument of a bull trend.

E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Today formed a strong bear breakout during the 830 am ET report bar.
  • The Bears are hopeful that the early morning breakout will lead to a second leg down during the U.S. session.
  • Because the market is likely going to get a gap down, the odds favor a second leg down on the open.
  • As I often say, there’s an 80% chance of a trading range open and a 20% chance of a trend from the open. This means that there is an 80% chance of the market forming a double top/double bottom or a wedge top/wedge bottom on the open.
  • The most important thing on the open is to be patient. The bars are often big open in the middle of the day, usually crowded.
  • It’s easy to trade too large on the open, and then the bars get smaller, making it difficult to make up the loss. This is especially true if traders are unable to adjust position sizes.

Yesterday’s E-mini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Bull Trap Then Midday Reversal Up

Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.

Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action

SP500 E-mini 5-Min Bull Trend From Open Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.

E-mini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is getting a prolonged pullback after the July 30th downside breakout.
  • The bears are hopeful that the rally up to yesterday’s high is a wedge bear flag, which will lead to a test back down to the July 30th  low.
  • While the Bulls have done a good job with the reversal up from the July 30th low, the risk is real that the bears need a second leg down.
  • The bears are hopeful that today we’ll form a bear bar closing on its low, creating a lower high major trend reversal.
  • Overall, the EURUSD is likely going to test down to the July 30th low over the next several days. The daily chart has been in a broad, full channel for a while, and channels typically evolve in the trading ranges.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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