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E-mini 2nd Leg Down After Yesterday’s Outside Down Bar

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Trading Update: Wednesday July 30, 2025

S&P E-mini market analysis

E-mini daily chart

  • The Emini yesterday fell below Monday’s low, ending the bull micro channel on the daily chart.
  • The bears are hopeful that today will form follow-through selling after yesterday’s outside down bar. More likely, today will be disappointing for the Bears and not create a strong bear trend bar.
  • The odds are against today forming a credible high 1 buy signal bar. This means that if today forms a bull bar, there will be an increased risk of sellers above and a second leg down after Tuesday’s sell-off.
  • While the channel up is tight, the rally is getting climactic and extreme, and has been far from the moving average for several bars.  This increases the odds of a test returning to the moving average over the next several days.
  • The risk is big, and the market is late in a bull channel. Both of those reasons increase the odds of a pullback and a possible test of the July 16th low, the most recent major higher low.
  • The bears want the market to fall below the July 16th low to end the argument that the market is in a bull channel. If major higher lows are not holding, then there’s an argument that the market is now transitioning into a trading range.
  • The bears ultimately want to form a major trend reversal, but to create a successful one, they will have to get a clear trend line break in the moving average and a re-test of the current highs.
  • A credible major trend reversal set up could take several bars. This further increases the odds that the best the Bears can get is a trading range.
  • Overall, the market is probably going to pull back soon and reach the moving average.

E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The opening of the U.S. session formed a small gap up and closed on the first bar of the day. So far, the first 10 bars have formed a tight trading range.
  • The market is currently forming a triangle, which is in breakout mode in the middle of yesterday’s late afternoon range.
  • The Bears want to reach yesterday’s low and trigger the sell on the daily chart. Because of the longer-term context, there’s an increased risk that the market tests down to yesterday’s low.
  • As of right now, the market is relatively neutral, and the bulls are trying to get a swing buy above the bar 6 high; however, it looks more like a bull leg and what will become a trading range.
  • The bulls formed an upside breakout on bars 10 and 11 that is strong enough for a 2nd leg up. The problem for the bears is that it is a breakout testing yesterday’s bar 43 high, creating a possible double top.
  • The bears need to prevent the bulls from creating more bull bars and make the market go sideways at yesterday’s bar 43 high. This would increase the risk of a possible reversal down and test of the bar 9 breakout point.
  • Today is an FOMC day, which increases the risk of volatility.
  • Traders should consider going flat at least 30 minutes before the announcement at 2 PM EST.
  • If traders are going to trade after the FOMC release, they should trade small and wait for at least 10 minutes after the report.
  • Most traders should consider not trading the FOMC release and instead consider trading the first hour of the day. This is because the FOMC increases the volatility and often has low-probability events, making it more challenging to trade.
  • Because the volatility is bigger, traders must trade smaller than their average position size. If they are unable to trade smaller than their average position size, they are better off not trading the announcement.

Yesterday’s E-mini setups

Emini 5-Min Bear Trend From Open Sell Climax Then Trading Range

Richard created the SP500 E-mini charts – Al travelling.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.

Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min TR Day Then Bear Breakout and EOD Reversal

Richard created the SP500 E-mini charts – Al travelling.

E-mini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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