Trading Update: Wednesday October 23, 2024
Emini end of day video review
You can also watch Joseph’s EOD Review for today on his YouTube channel.
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a bull bar yesterday, adding another bar to the tight trading range that has lasted more than 6 bars. This is a breakout mode pattern, making the probability close to 50% for both the bulls and bears.
- The 6,000 round number is a logical magnet for the market to reach. While the odds favor the 6,000 round number getting tested, every bar added to the tight trading range lowers the probability.
- This means that the sideways the market goes, the increased risk of a reversal down to the July high before the market reaches the 6,000 round number.
- The daily 20–period moving average is close enough to the current price level that the market may have to test it.
- Even if the market gets down to the moving average and the July high, the odds will favor a minor reversal. This means that a trading range is more likely to have a strong selloff into a bear trend on the daily chart.
- The more important thing is that the market is about the moving average and forming a tight trading range. This means that the market is neutral, and the odds slightly favor the bulls. However, if the probability was 60% for the bulls, the market would not be in a tight trading range. This means that the probability is much closer to 50% for both bulls and bears.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped down on the open and has gone sideways for the first 6 bars of the session. This increases the odds of a trading range open and the market going skidways.
- The bulls are hopeful that today, they will follow the same pattern as yesterday and form a trend from the open bull trend.
- It is better for most traders to wait for clarity in the form of a strong breakout.
- If today is going to form a trend day up or down, there will be plenty of time to enter once the probability favors the trending direction.
- Today gapped down with reasonable size, which increases the odds of the bears getting a second leg down today.
- The selloff down to bar 11 looks like a bear leg in what will become a trading range. It is a tight bear channel. However, the bears are near support, yesterday’s low. This increases the odds of a trading range and reversal up back to the low of the day.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex end of day market analysis
EURUSD what to expect going forward
- The EURUSD formed another bear bar today, closing near the midpoint of the bar after reaching the August low.
- This is forming a parabolic wedge bottom and increases the odds of a couple of legs sideways to up.
- Because the market is getting far from the moving average, there is an increased risk of a reversal up and test of the average price.
- Tomorrow will probably close above the day’s open and form a bull bar on the daily chart.
- If tomorrow is a big bull bar closing on its high, it will increase the odds of taking bears and a test of the moving average.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
