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Emini Likely to Disappoint Bull and Bears

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Trading Update: Monday March 27, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Emini likely to disappoint bulls and bears after reversal up on Friday and forming a bull bar closing on its high.
  • The bulls want to trap the bears who sold last week, betting on a 2nd leg down after the March 22nd outside down day.
  • The bulls want a strong entry bar today and ultimately a measured move up from the low of March 14th to the high of March 22nd, projecting up to around 4,300.
  • The bears will see last Friday as a pullback from the March 22nd outside down bar. They want the bulls to be disappointed with today’s entry bar and for the market to breakout below last Friday’s low.
  • This is typical trading range price action. When one side does something to demonstrate strength, they quickly become disappointed. The bears got a big outside bar on March 22nd, and the market found buyers below. The bulls have a strong bull close on March 24th and will likely become disappointed as well.
  • Overall, the market is in the middle of a triangle formed over the past eight months. Traders should assume that the market is in breakout mode and has close to 50% probability for an upside or downside breakout. Most traders should wait for clarity in the form of a strong breakout with follow-through, closing above or below several bars.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 22 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market sold off last night and found buyers early this morning.
  • The bulls saw the selloff last night as a pullback from the rally on Friday, and the bears saw it as the start of a reversal.
  • As always, traders should expect a trading range open. Traders should assume the first hour will have a lot of limit order trading.
  • Most traders should wait for a credible swing trade that will likely begin before the second-hour ends. The swing trade often starts after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
  • With Friday being a bull reversal bar closing on its high, traders should be open to a bull trend day today, creating a strong entry bar on the daily chart. More likely, today will be a disappointing entry bar for the bulls.

Emini intraday market update

  • The Emini gapped up and went sideways for the first 6 bars of the day.
  • The bears formed a double top with bars 2 and 5. At this point, the odds favored sideways.
  • The first two hours of the day sold off and tested the high of last Friday, where it found support.
  • At the time of writing this (8:35 AM PT), the bulls want a reversal from Last Friday’s High, and the bears want a small Pullback bear trend. More likely, the market is going to begin going sideways soon.  
  • The bulls need to get above the 8:00 (Bar 18) lower high and end the argument of a bear trend. The bears want to continue to form lower highs and lower lows.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-min Chart Bull Trend From Open and Endless Pullback into Bear Trend Reversal. Emini likely to disappoint Bulls and Bears in the week ahead.

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily Bulls Likely to get a 2nd leg up
  • The EURUSD formed a 6-bar micro channel up to March 23rd. The odds are that the bulls will get at least a small 2nd leg up.
  • This means the bears need at least a micro double top before forming a credible sell.  
  • The bears want the rally up to March 23rd to form a 2nd leg trap. This would trap the bulls into buying too high in a trading range. Next, the bears want the market to reverse down and test the March 15th low.
  • The market is in a trading range. The bulls want the trend resumption above the February high, and the bears want a successful Lower high major trend reversal. The market will likely go sideways for some time and disappoint both the bulls and the bears.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action

SP500 Emini 5-min Chart Low 2 Top Then Wedge Bottom and Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Brad hosted a live stream End of Day Review at 1:00pm PT and answered questions.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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