Trading Update: Friday March 24, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Emini may go sideways today after market rallied yesterday for the first couple of hours and then sold off in a strong small, pullback bear trend for the rest of the day.
- On the daily chart, the bulls used yesterday morning’s rally to sell out of longs at a higher price. The bears knew the odds favored a 2nd leg down after Wednesday’s outside down bar, so they also sold.
- There were trapped buy the close bulls who bought the breakout on March 21st, and they used yesterday’s rally to exit longs back at the March 21st bull close.
- While yesterday is a follow-through for the bears, it is more of a trading range bar, a reminder that the bear case is not as strong as it could be.
- The bears still expect a 2nd leg down from the March 22nd outside down bar.
- The bulls know that the bears will likely get at least a small 2nd leg down, and they do not mind it as long as the market forms some kind of higher low and least to an upside breakout above the March 22nd high.
- For the bulls to set up a reasonable buy, they will likely need some micro double bottom at a minimum to convince traders to buy.
- Overall, traders should expect the first reversal up to fail and lead to sideways trading and the bears to get a small 2nd leg down. However, the market may have to go sideways for a couple of days first before the bears can get their 2nd leg down.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 22 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The overnight Globex session has been in a bear trend since the early morning hours.
- The bears want the market to have a follow-through today and close below the past two days.
- Today will gap down, which means traders should expect at least a small 2nd leg down on the open.
- However, traders should also expect to enter an early trading range and go sideways to the moving average.
- Most traders should wait for a swing trade to set up, that usually forms before the end of the 2nd hour. The swing trade usually begins after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are essential. This means that traders should be prepared for a surprise breakout late in the day as the market decides on the close of the weekly chart.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD sold off after testing the February 2nd low. February 2nd was a stop entry sell, and bulls got trapped buying the bear’s low. This meant that both bulls and bears would likely be selling and retest of the February 2nd low.
- Today is the entry bar for yesterday’s stop entry short. The size of today is a little bit of a surprise, which will increase the odds of a small 2nd leg down. However, the problem the bears have is that the bulls have a 6-bar bull micro channel. This will probably limit the downside.
- Overall, traders will pay close attention to today to see if it will close on or near its low. If it does close on its low, that will increase the odds of sellers above for a small 2nd leg down. If today has a big tail, that will lower the probability of the bears getting a 2nd leg down.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day review
- Live stream video trial replacement of end of day review coming soon.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.