Trading Update: Thursday June 8, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Yesterday formed a second entry short; probably buyers below and near the high of February 2nd.
- The Bulls had a High 1 buy on the daily chart, following last week’s strong bull breakout. However, the bulls failed to get strong follow-through, and the bears managed to get a failed breakout above the High 1 and close on the bar on its low.
- The bears want to undo the damage caused by last week’s bull breakout by getting a strong bear bar today.
- More likely, the bears will get a disappointing entry bar for the second entry short below yesterday’s low.
- The bulls will buy, trying to create a second entry buy today following Tuesday’s high 1 buy signal bar.
- There are trapped bulls who bought above Tuesday’s High 1 buy signal bar and are trapped with yesterday’s bad entry bar. These bulls more than likely are willing to scale in lower.
- If the bulls do get a decent second entry buy signal today, traders will pay close attention to the retest of Tuesday’s High 1 buy signal.
- If the bulls are very disappointed, they will sell back at the entry price of Tuesday’s High 1.
- The Bears have done an excellent job getting a second-entry sell. However, the bar has been overlapping the past three days, which lowers the probability of today getting a strong entry bar.
- The bears need to do more, and ultimately, they need to get a close below the February 2nd breakout point.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The overnight Globex session got a late downside breakout last night (15-minute chart). However, it was a bear breakout below a triangle.
- The market formed a final flag, and the market reversed back up during the early morning hours.
- The bears want to get a bear trend today, which would create a strong entry bar following yesterday’s 2nd entry short. The bulls want a strong bull trend today, which would make a 2nd entry buy on the daily chart.
- More likely, the market will have a lot of trading range price action today.
- As I often say, traders should expect 6-12 sideways bars on the open. Most opens go sideways for the first hour. This means that there is typically no rush to avoid missing a move.
- If a trader waits for 6-12 bars, they gain more certainty on the day’s structure. Also, it is common to see at least one opening reversal during the first 6 bars, so a trader avoids getting trapped by waiting.
- If today is going to be a trend day, there will be plenty of time to enter the trend’s direction.
- Most traders should try and catch the opening swing trade that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is typical for the opening swing to begin after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Lastly, traders should pay close attention to the day’s open and yesterday’s low, as both will probably be magnets.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini sold off on the open below yesterday’s low, which triggered the Low 2 short on the daily chart.
- The short below yesterday’s low failed on bar 6, and the market reversed.
- The bulls got six consecutive bull bars up to 12, and the market was Always In Long.
- Since yesterday was a spike and channel bear trend, it was reasonable for the market to test yesterday’s bar 25 close (8:35 AM PT), the top of the bear channel.
- As of bar 33, the market is Always In Long. The bulls want today to close on its high, creating a High 2 buy setup on the daily chart.
- Tuesday formed a High 1 buy signal on the daily chart that trapped bulls who bought above it. Their entry price was around 4,294. It is reasonable to expect the market to test 4,294 and allow those bulls out who got trapped buying above the June 6th High 1 buy.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is going sideways in a tight trading range just below the moving average.
- The bears have 19 bars completely below the moving average, a sign of bear strength.
- However, a tight trading range indicates a lack of momentum. Bears are happy to sell below the moving average if the momentum down justifies selling low.
- Here, the momentum does not justify selling far below the moving average. This means there are buyers not far below the moving average, and bears will likely begin to sell near the moving average.
- The market will probably have to reach the moving average and possibly close above it over the next few days. This means traders should expect a couple of days from sideways to up.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Live stream video review with Brad Wolff. Here is YouTube link:
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.