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EURUSD Major Lower High

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The market is forming a EURUSD major lower high on the monthly chart relative to the January 2021 high. The bears want a reversal from a wedge top (April 21, July 1, and September 17). The bulls see the current move as a pullback in a developing bull trend and want the move to be weak and sideways.

EURUSD Forex market

The Monthly EURUSD Forex chart

EURUSD Monthly - Wedge, Lower High, Bears Need FT Selling, EURUSD Major Lower High
  • The October EURUSD monthly candlestick was a bear bar closing near its low.
  • Last month, traders were watching to see if the bulls could retest the September 17 high and get a breakout above, or if the market would stall around the July 1 and September 17 highs and then pull back toward the August low.
  • So far, the market stalled below the September 17 high and is pulling back.
  • The bulls see the current move as a pullback in a developing bull trend. They want the pullback to be weak and sideways — overlapping bars, long tails below, and poor follow-through selling.
  • They want the August low to act as support, forming a double bottom bull flag.
  • If the pullback extends lower, they want the 20-month EMA to hold as support.
  • The bears see the September 17 rally as a bull leg in a trading range and a buy vacuum test of resistance.
  • They want the current rally to form a major lower high relative to the January 2021 high. So far, this remains the case.
  • The bears also see resistance at the bear trend line and the upper third of the multi-year trading range.
  • They want a reversal from a wedge top (April 21, July 1, and September 17).
  • They will need consecutive strong bear bars to show they are in control, something they have not achieved since December.
  • The buying pressure since the January low has been stronger (tight bull channel) than the selling pressure (bear bar with no follow-through selling)+, but the overlapping bars over the past five months show a loss of momentum.
  • The wedge top and loss of momentum increase the odds of a pullback that may have begun in October.
  • In November, traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling, or if the pullback remains weak and sideways as it has been through most of 2025.

The Weekly EURUSD chart

Eurusd Weekly - 7-Bar Bear MC, Pb Within Trading Range
  • This week’s EURUSD candlestick was a bear bar closing near its low and below the 20-week EMA.
  • Last week, traders were watching to see if the pullback would stall above the 20-week EMA or if the bears could create bear bars closing below it.
  • The bears created a third leg sideways to down (first two legs being Sep 25 and Oct 25), with the market closing below the 20-week EMA for the first time in 34 weeks.
  • They want the upper third of the multi-year trading range to act as resistance, forming a lower high relative to January 2021. So far, this remains the case.
  • The bears are looking for a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal (September 17) and a wedge top (April 21, July 1, and September 17).
  • The pullback is forming as a 7-bar bear microchannel, indicating persistent selling pressure.
  • There may be sellers above the first pullback above this bear microchannel.
  • The bears need consecutive strong bear bars closing near their lows, breaking decisively below both the 20-week EMA and the August 1 low, to increase the odds of a trend reversal.
  • The bulls see the current move as a pullback within a broader bull trend.
  • They want the 20-week EMA to act as support. If the market trades lower, they want the August low area to hold, forming a large double bottom bull flag with the August 1 low.
  • The bulls will need strong consecutive bull bars breaking above the bear microchannel to show they have regained control.
  • The market has been in a trading range for the past 20 weeks.
  • Traders may continue to Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH) within this range — buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third — until there is a clear breakout with follow-through in either direction.
  • For now, the market could still trade at least a bit lower.
  • Traders will watch whether the bears can create consecutive bear bars closing far below the 20-week EMA, something not seen since February.
  • Or if the pullback will remain sideways and lacking in strong follow-through selling, followed by a reversal above the 20-week EMA instead?
  • The odds slightly favor the pullback being minor for now.

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