Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 24:58 mins.
Summary
In this Bitcoin‘s Price Action report, Josep Capo breaks down recent drop below its 2026 low. Analyzing monthly, weekly, and daily charts, the report details a critical bear breakout threatening a slide toward $50,000. While bears dominate, end-of-quarter institutional rebalancing could spark a reversal if bulls reclaim key $60,000 and $65,000 levels.
Transcript
Everyone is panicking as Bitcoin traded below its 2026 low, and it is breaking down a critical double bottom. But what does the chart actually say? Stick with us as a professional price action trader breaks down this setup.
Welcome back to this week’s Bitcoin price action analysis. My name is Joseph Capo, and I am a trader and an author for the Brooks Trading Course website. We are going to analyze the monthly, weekly, and daily chart.
Here we’ve got the monthly chart of Bitcoin, and this is the June’s candlestick. It is about to close. It is closing on next Tuesday, and so far, it is a very strong bear breakout. What does that mean? The bear breakout, it is the third leg on—during—or the third leg: one leg down, two legs down, and three legs down, who has been testing successfully the lows of the wedge top pattern. And now it is reaching the ultimate target of the bears that sold the wedge top, which is the wedge top low. It is also the low of a spike and channel bull trend, so it is the target that bears wanted—that bears that sold during this bear breakout, or the double top formation after the wedge top, that the bears wanted in ultimate.
What—what should we expect after—after testing this—this target? The first thing that we—we are expecting, it is a reversal up, and that’s because um we—we believe that these patterns, it’s going to develop in a trading range. And now we have to see whether the bears are able to continue to go deeper into this shorter-term bear channel and testing lower bound—boundaries of—of the—of the price, or if it will reverse up around the current price. So we have to assess the strength of the bears, and so far, bears are still strong. Bulls need a couple of things that we are going to discuss right now in order to keep this um possible reversal up, or this reversal up thesis that is something plausible in this kind of environment.
So bulls want leg up—couple of legs up in this trading range, because trading ranges, that’s what they do. They do a couple of legs up and a couple of legs down, and so on. So this is what the bulls want right now. They want a kind of a double bottom around here. Do they have chances of that, or bears are strong enough to keep going down? Well, we do not have the answer for that, but we do—we will have this answer by following price action.
The first thing that bulls need, it is to defend the last days of the formation of this bar, some critical levels. These levels are around the $60,000 area. So, they need to try to close above this green line that I paint, or above the $60,000 level, because that will mean that there is some kind of possibilities that they will keep defending what they defended in the past, which is around this—this level. All right. So the first thing will be to watch if the last days of trading, like Monday and Tuesday—the last day of June—it is able to fight for a close higher than the current prices. So that’s the first thing, but still, what is going to happen next? June, it is the end of the second quarter of the year. Every quarter is normally—or can possibly—create a transition from one pattern to another. And this is because institutions, they are dominant in the markets, and they do long-term bets and rebalances.
So maybe just because of rebalances right now, Bitcoin has been going down, so they are going to buy more because—if they have, for example, assigned x% of the portfolio to be invested in Bitcoin, and now Bitcoin has lost value during this last quarter, that means that they have to buy to keep that percentage of investment in Bitcoin. So, they are probably going to be buying Bitcoin at the end or during the first—during the last days of June, or during the first days or weeks of July, and that creates like a flow that makes the price action change its behavior. So it is like a—a possible inflection point just based upon how the institutions engage in the markets. So it is critical to always look for the every-month closes or every-quarter closes, because that creates this flow in the markets. Institutions move the markets, so we are very interested to watch whether institutions are—or these institutional rebalances that will create—that will engage with buying pressure, if they are able to surpass the current bearish pressure, which is possible that bears continue to dominate.
First thing, bears need to close below this area around current prices. So if it closes like—like right now it’s currently looking, this bar, this is really threatening the—the—the—the upcoming months, and it is likely to test the $50,000 level if there is a good bear close in June. And we are about four or five days to close this month.
Bulls—what they need? Bulls don’t have control. They have lost in June the control—the short-term control they had around the $65,000 area, and they are now like behind, like lagging. They are not engaging in the market actively. So there will be either passive buyers investing, but traders trading this chart, they are either using a very wide stop and they are able to scale in, which means that they use a small portion of position size and they build positions. But to actively be buying this, to have the—so if you are like more conservative and you prefer the probability of the bullish—a bull leg starting, you have to wait until you see that there is—that there are bulls taking control. And for that to happen, bulls need to close some candle in the following months above—above June’s open. That will mean that if, for example, July closes above 70,000—above the open of June—that’s good. That’s good for the bulls, and it will mean that they control this upper boundaries of the price, or that—that will mean that they control the price below $70,000 at least at the moment of doing so. So that’s something that the bulls, they need to do.
And right now, all they can do—if it—it seems hard to now watch the price reverse all the way up and creating a bull bar closing above this—this low, this low-one signal, this bear reversal. It looks like hard for the bulls to do that in a—in a—in—in a couple of days. So I think that bulls are losing control, but now they can reduce damage by trying to close as high as possible—try to fight the midpoint of June’s candlestick. So that’s the fight on the monthly chart.
And it is interesting because for a bull reversal to—to happen, for a price action trader to tell you that now it looks like the couple of legs up are going to begin, we have the hint in the price when—the hallmark will be when they take control of bears that currently control the market. No, it is true that the current context tells us that this should be a buy zone area, because this pattern, the wedge top pattern, is likely just—or this current bear leg, this current bear breakout tight bear channel, it’s likely a leg into the trading range. Yes, that’s how it looks like, but then we need the proof. All right. And of course, if you are trading the monthly chart and using a wide stop, it would mean to just bet that the price is not going to go to zero, which is an advantage for long-term traders that—that have a—a bullish perspective, right? So I think that that is an advantage for now traders that want to bet on just to build a position—to try to just buy in small portions and build a position. And even if there is a bear breakout, a test of these lows at some point, they will be—they will likely end up making money. So I think, from this perspective, there is this disadvantage for the bulls on the monthly chart.
Now we are going to move to the weekly chart. This is the weekly chart, and the weekly chart is doing a bear breakout of a double bottom. So this week is breaking below the double bottom low, and bulls lost their possibility of controlling a bit the short term. They—they have no control over this chart, bulls. They are hopeful, just like in the monthly chart, that this is a double bottom. They think that there is here a bull breakout of a bear channel. And when there is a bull breakout, a strong bull breakout of a bear channel, this resumption down is usually going to fail. And again, looking at the overall context, this is how it looks like. This is what it looks like that it would happen. So I think it is good—good to have a bullish perspective, a bullish—a bullish scenario here, because there are several—of several factors that tell us that this could be a failed bear breakout of a double bottom, and now there is a reversal up.
But there is also an obligation from us to wait until bulls regain control, because until that doesn’t happen—until bulls don’t regain the control—bears—bears are in control. So right now, bears are—are, by closing below the midpoint of this week’s candlestick, they are still controlling the—the short term. Bulls will need to just reverse up strongly in the following weeks—on the next week or the following weeks—and with the current information, they need at least to close above this minor lower high, so around $65,000. So this is the shorter-term checkpoint for that now is controlled by the bears. Bulls, they lost their control when bears closed below this bull breakout.
And now, what the bears want—and they can achieve until there is not a bull reversal, until there is not—until there aren’t signs that bulls are going to or are strong, or are—or bears are weak—the most likely scenario is to continue down. So, bears want a bear breakout based upon the height of this failed bull breakout, and that—that means trading around $48,000. So, that—that’s below $50,000. I think this is, if the price keeps going down now, it looks like it—it will go down. Now, next week, maybe the price just reverses up, there is a strong close above the current minor lower high, and all this that we are discussing is just—all right. So now it’s more likely that we are going to test this high, or this high, or the overall pattern’s high. But until that doesn’t happen, I have to look down.
Price action traders are—even if we have a big context, so a broad perspective, we have to be patient or even trade the opposite side. I—I wouldn’t trade on the short side right now because I think you are going a bit against the—the flow in this area. You better stay flat, and that’s something I am sure I have learned from Al. So I think it is better to just be a spectator here. And either bears prove that they are able to keep continuing breaking down, surprising on the downside. Right now, they are not yet surprising because there are some targets that can be reached and still then reverse up from those targets. But if they—keep—if they reach those targets and they continue to look strong, that’s a surprise, and—and then you have to flip the mindset and try to—to engage on the bear side. I think the bears—it was better to engage higher, and this is a trade I have looked and to short around there, and I have discussed—I didn’t because bulls look too—look too strong at this point to chart, so I missed this swing down. But that’s not the point. The point is that we frame—we—we are able to frame well how the probabilities evolve in the market for each participant. So right now, I will be—I think that the price, it’s going to keep trading lower. But if there is a reversal up and closes above these areas controlled by the bears, then there—that might be the start of a profound bull reversal.
And well, we are discussing here, we are breaking down a double bottom on the weekly chart. We are breaking down now not only a double bottom on the daily chart, but also a head and shoulders top, right? So this is a head and shoulders top that is breaking down. All right. So the projection of the—so there is another bear projection on the—down—a downside measured move that it tells us that the market can keep trending down to the $50,000 area again. And bears did well something that I have discussed last week: it was the possibility—the possibility that we are already in a trading range, that this were just one leg up, two legs down, two legs up, and this is just one leg down and second leg down. Maybe we are in a second-leg trap here, and the price is going just to reverse up, and this whole move that we have been discussing on the monthly and weekly chart, that it will be reflected early in the daily chart.
So maybe we are going to watch how it will look like if bulls reverse from here. So first, again, like in the weekly chart, they lost all control of this chart. So now, bears control this battlefield, and bulls are not yet showing any strong hand. If they have to show us something strong, that will begin by taking a small milestone, like the first one will be closing above the $60,000 area—closing above these opens of these bear bars, or especially above $65,000. That can be very meaningful. The first one will be closing above Saturday, Friday, Thursday high, or—or well above Friday’s high. That will be a sign that maybe there is going to be a test of these upper targets.
But so far, this isn’t happening. So we are below the areas that are controlled by the bears. Bulls lost the control when, on Thursday, there was this close below the low of the lowest bull bar on this pattern. So they lost control. If we are in a trading range, bulls will regain control again, and bears—bears that are now hoping that this is a bear breakout of a head and shoulders top, they may be disappointed and exit, and that will create this upper move. But until that doesn’t happen, if bears just keep trending down—so for now, I believe that it is very possible a test of Friday’s low and then see what’s going on there. Until bulls are not able to close above bear bars, then we have to—we have to better to look at lower targets. In this case, the low of Friday or the low of the last—or or this week that are the targets that I am looking for until there isn’t this bulls as—until bulls don’t do this step forward.
Pretty much this is all I have got for you today. If you enjoyed—enjoyed the video, please leave your comment, like the video, and subscribe to the channel if you want for more. There are other great analysts that they post here their—their views of the market, and you can learn a lot of price action from each of them, and I encourage you to to follow us and come back next week. So have a lovely week ahead, and thank you so much for watching.
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