Posted 7:15 a.m. Yesterday was a broad bull trend channel, and today had a new high on the open. The bulls want a rally above last week’s all-time high. The bears want a 60 minute major trend reversal after yesterday’s gap bars. Channels evolve into trading ranges 75% of the time. In 25% of bull […]
Intraday market update, December 3, 2014:
Intraday market update, December 2, 2014:
test of the island top
Posted 7:15 a.m. The Emini had an early bull breakout, but the rally stalled at the 60 minute moving average and yesterday’s high, creating a test of the island top. It is a strong enough breakout so that the reversal down will more likely lead to a trading range than a bear trend. The bulls […]
Intraday market update, December 1, 2014:
island top trend reversal
Posted 7:00 a.m. The Emini gapped down and sold off for the first several bars. It is always in short and this could become a bear trend day. The bulls need a strong reversal before bulls will consider swing trading. The selling is so strong that they will also be hesitant to scalp until the […]
Intraday market update, November 28, 2014:
breakout of a tight trading range
Posted 10:30 a.m. Today completed a week-long wedge top. Day trading outlook for tomorrow’s Emini price action Today again sold off from a new all-time high. It was a trading range day, but it is the 3rd push up after Monday’s gap up and therefore might be followed by 2 legs down. Premarket price action […]
Intraday market update, November 26, 2014:
breakout of a tight trading range
Posted 7:15 a.m. The Emini opened within a tight trading range, in a 2 day trading range, in light Holiday trading. The bears made 3 attempts to get down to the 60 minute moving average and failed. As I am writing, the bulls are now trying to reverse the market up, but they do not […]
Intraday market update, November 25, 2014:
failed breakout and major trend reversal
Posted 7:10 a.m. Today began with a failed breakout and major trend reversal. Yesterday was a small trading range day, and during a holiday week, trading range price action often dominates. Today broke above the all-time high and reversed down, forming a higher high major trend reversal on the open. It is also a final […]
Intraday market update, November 24, 2014:
Gap up and then a trading range open
Posted 7:15 a.m. The Emini had a gap up and then a trading range open. It gapped up above yesterday’s close and initially sold off, trying to duplicate the endless pullback and small pullback bear trend of yesterday (Friday). However, since that type of price action is a low probability event, it is low probability […]
Intraday market update, November 21, 2014:
gap up and breakout above the weekly bull channel
Posted 6:01 a.m. I leave early today and I am posting this before the open. Here are my observations. Today’s big gap up above the weekly channel is a low probability event and therefore it will trap scale-in bears in; bears who have been selling near the top of the channel are now holding a […]
Intraday market update, November 20, 2014:
ABC pullback and trend reversal up from below the low of yesterday
Posted 7:02 a.m. The Emini opened with ABC pullback and trend reversal up from below yesterday’s low (high 2 bull flag). However, the bars were not big and there were prominent tails. Although this might lead to an opening reversal down at the moving average, the rally is strong enough so that the first reversal […]
Intraday market update, November 19, 2014:
sell vacuum test of support
Posted 7:05 a.m. Today opened with a sell vacuum test of support, which is at the bottom of yesterday’s channel and at the 60 minute moving average. It then briefly became a limit order market. This increases the chances that today will be a trading range day. Because of the sell climax on the open, […]
