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Hello,
I need some help fully understanding surprises. I was replaying Jan 4 2023 and reviewing the blog chart afterwards. When I was replaying, I wrote down bar 7 & 8 as a surprise bear breakout, which would probably lead to a second leg down and probably bigger than bar 11 going a couple of ticks below bar 10.
I was surprised to see that it is not a surprise. Is this because any trend at the open, no matter how strong it appears, has 50 percent probability of reversing, and by that definition there is no surprises because nothing is a low probability event then?
Please correct me, or help me understand.
Thank you,
Andreas
