Emini Bears Expect Test of Moving Average

Trading Update: Thursday March 20, 2025

Emini end of day video review

Follow Rose’s YouTube channel for more Al Brooks price action analysis.

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini broke above the March 17^th high, creating a second leg up from the March Low rally. The odds favor a test of the moving average due to the market being oversold. This increases the risk of bears being unwilling to sell at this price level.
• March 17^th was a weak sell signal bar below, increasing the odds of buyers below and a 2^nd leg up after the 3 bar bull micro channel.
• Yesterday formed a weak Low 2 short; however, it was a bull bar closing just under its midpoint, increasing the odds of buyers below it.
• Bears are hesitant to sell due to the market being below the moving average and the January 13^th low.
• Because the daily chart is most likely in a trading range, the odds favor price increasing to the abovementioned targets. Bears will likely hesitate to sell before the market reaches the moving average.
• The bulls need to continue to build the buying pressure. Ideally, the bulls must create a series of bull bars closing above the moving average.
• Overall, the odds for a test of the moving average and the January 13^th low.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The bulls rallied from a bull trend from the open, with bar 1 following the gap down.
• The rally up to bar 7 is strong and increases the odds of buyers below. This means that today will be a bull trend or a trading range day, not a bear trend.
• The bulls are trying to get above yesterday’s high.
• As of bar 10, the rally is getting climactic, which increases the odds of a pullback soon.
• To sell, traders likely need to see a credible reversal. This means the bears first need a trendline break and a retest of the highs. At a minimum, the bears must halt the buying pressure and make the market go sideways

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini chart.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Richard created the SP500 Emini chart – Al travelling.

---

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD is getting a reversal down and test of the March 6^th low, the bottom of the bull channel that began after the recent strong bull breakout.
• Because the bull breakout was strong, the odds favor buyers below and a 2^nd leg up.
• The bears are hopeful that the current bear reversal will start a strong selloff that will reach the February 28^th low. While this is possible, it is not likely. More likely, there are buyers below scaling in lower, and the market will go above the March high.
• However, because the higher time frame context is in a trading range, the pullback from the recent strong bull breakout may be deeper than what the bulls want.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

---

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

---

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

---