Trading Update: Friday November 3, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed another strong bull breakout bar on the daily chart. While the breakout is strong on the daily chart, it is becoming climactic. This will increase the odds of a pullback lasting 1-3 days.
- The market is Always In Long and will probably test the October high, even if there is a brief pullback first.
- The bears hope this rally will be similar to the rally up to October 11th. Next, the bears will want the market to scall and reverse down to below the October low.
- The market formed a wedge bottom with August 18th, October 3rd, and the October 27th low. Wedge bottoms typically lead to two legs in the opposite direction lasting about half as many bars as the wedge. This means that the odds favor the Bulls getting a second leg up.
- The bulls are hopeful that the recent upside breakout will get a measured move up and a test of the August 31st low, which is the start of the bear channel that began on the daily chart.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 21 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Emimi was in a tight trading range for most of the overnight Globex session.
- The bulls recently formed an upside breakout during the 8:30 EST report that was released.
- While the breakout is strong, the odds favor the bulls becoming disappointed. This means today will probably be a trading range day and not another intense bull trend day.
- Traders should expect the open to have a lot of trading range price action. This means that most traders should consider not trading during the first 6-12 bars unless they are comfortable with limit order trading and can make quick decisions.
- Most traders should look for the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour after forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are essential. The bulls want the week to close on its high, and the bears want to create as big of a tail as possible on the weekly chart.
- It is common for Fridays to get a surprise breakout late in the day as institutions decide on the closing price of the weekly chart. If the market does form a surprise breakout late in the day, traders must not be in denial.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is breaking out above the highs of the month-long trading range.
- The bulls want today to close on its high, increasing the probability of a bull breakout of the month-long bear flag. Next, the bulls will want a measured move up from the October 3rd low to the October 24th high, which would project up to around the August 30th high.
- The bears want today’s breakout to fail and have a large tail on the bar or for the follow-through bar to form a large bear reversal bar.
- At the moment, it looks like the bulls will get the upside breakout. However, the bulls need follow-through, and without it, traders will question the breakout.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.