Trading Update: Friday June 30, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Bulls now have three consecutive bull bars, with two closing above their midpoints, following the selloff to June 26th. The Bulls hope this will set up a strong High 1 buy signal on the weekly chart.
- The reversal over the past three days is strong enough to increase the odds of a second leg up.
- The bears sold on the way down, looking to scale in higher, are trapped. The recent three consecutive bull bars increase the risk of bears giving up and a buy vacuum test of the June 15 bull close.
- The bulls hope the market will rally without any pullbacks up to the June 16th high and close far above it. However, this is unlikely due to the selloff down to the June 26th low.
- The rally over the past three days is a lower high with the June 16th high. This means it is a High 1 buy setup on a higher time frame, such as a weekly chart.
- Most High 1 buy signal bars lead to deeper pullbacks. This means next week will probably trigger the high one buy going above this week’s high, and pullback for a bar or two on the weekly chart. This means that the odds are that the daily chart will go sideways for a couple of weeks.
- The bulls are hopeful that tomorrow closes on its high and leads to a strong High 1 signal bar on the weekly chart. Even if the week closes on its high, traders should expect next week to have a lot of sideways trading, leading to bad follow-through on the weekly chart.
- The bears want to damage the bull argument of a High 1 going into the end of the week. At a minimum, the bears want to close below 4,400, leading to a close below the midpoint of the week’s range.
- Tomorrow will probably disappoint the bulls and create at least a small tail on the high of the week’s range. The bulls had a strong bull breakout on June 27th and a week follow-through bar (June 28th). Today is another strong bull close, and tomorrow will probably be similar to June 28th.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The 5:30 AM PT report led to an upside breakout. Traders should probably expect a trading range open and for the bulls to get disappointed with today following the early morning rally.
- Traders should expect today to have a lot of trading range price action, especially during the first hour of the day.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important. As mentioned above, the bulls want the week to close on its high, creating a strong looking High 1 buy signal bar on the weekly chart. The bears want the opposite and for the market to close below the midpoint of the week, which is around 4,400.
- Traders should be prepared for a potential surprise breakout late in the day as traders decide to close the weekly chart.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini gapped up and rallied, forming a bull trend from the open.
- Because of how climactic the market has been over the past few days, the odds were that the rally would become a trading range, and the market would form an opening reversal.
- The selloff down to bar 16 was strong enough to make a bull trend and increased the odds of a trading range day.
- As of bar 40 (9:50 AM PT) the market has not gone above or below the 18 bar range. This means that the odds are that the day’s high is not in place, and the market will go above bar 11.
- Traders should expect a trading range to last most of the day.
- Since today is Friday, traders should be prepared for a surprise breakout late in the day as traders decide on the close of the weekly chart. The bulls will try their best to close the week near its high creating a strong High 1 on the weekly chart.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a strong bear breakout bar yesterday, which increases the odds of a 2nd leg down.
- The June 23rd bear breakout was strong enough, probably leading to a second leg down. This meant that there were probably sellers above on any test of the June 22nd Low, which is why June 27th (bull bar) sold off.
- Today’s bear breakout is strong enough to make traders wonder if the market will reach the June 15th low.
- The bears want a symmetrical second leg down after the selloff from the June 22nd high to the June 23rd low. If the Bears get a symmetrical second leg down, it will project very close to the June 15th close.
- The bulls want to form a strong bull reversal bar today, creating a double bottom with the June 23rd low. More likely, the second leg down that began on June 28th is strong enough that the bulls will likely be hesitant to buy the close of June 29th.
- Overall, traders will pay close attention to see how determined the bears are to get follow-through selling today.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Live stream videos to follow Monday, Wednesday and Friday (subject to change).
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.