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Emini Sideways Likely into FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

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Trading Update: Tuesday November 22, 2022

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini daily chart is going sideways around the 4,000 big round number. The market may be waiting for the FOMC minutes tomorrow before deciding on a breakout up or down.
  • While the odds slightly favor higher prices, if the bulls were clearly in control, the market would not be going sideways like it is now.
  • The bears see a wedge top (October 5 or 18, November 1, and November 15), They hope that the market will have two legs down and test the bottom of the last leg in the wedge (November 9).
  • The bulls see an open gap with the November 1 breakout point. They want the gap to stay open and lead to a measured move up, testing the September 12 low at a minimum.
  • If the bears are going to get swill, they need to close the open breakout point gap (November 1) high.
  • Overall, traders should expect the market to continue having a trading range trading until the release of tomorrow’s FOMC minutes at 11:00 AM PT.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 16 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market went sideways for most of the overnight session and had an upside breakout around 1:30 AM PT.
  • With the FOMC minutes being tomorrow, traders should expect a lot of trading range trading going into the report. This means that the odds favor today being a trading range day.
  • As always, traders should expect a lot of limit order trading and sideways. If a trader is uncomfortable with limit orders, traders should consider waiting for a credible breakout or stop entry trade.
  • Most traders should wait for 6-12 bars on the open before trading since the odds favor sideways.
  • Traders can also consider waiting for a credible stop entry, such as a double top/bottom or a wedge top /bottom.
  • While the odds favor a trading range day, if the open has many strong consecutive trend bars, traders cannot be in denial and must find a way to enter the trend’s direction. If this happens, traders should consider placing the smallest possible position to get in the market.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Emini-5-Min Trading Range Day. Sideways likely into FOMC tomorrow.

Brad created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

Bears Need Follow-through after Breakout
  • The bears got a bear breakout bar yesterday. However, the bar is small and needs follow-through.
  • Yesterday is a problem for the bulls, as it is the fifth bar in a bear micro channel, which increases the odds that the first reversal up will fail and lead to a second leg down.
  • The bulls will try their best to prevent follow-through selling today, which would increase the odds of going sideways to up.
  • At the moment, the odds favor the bulls getting a second leg up. However, traders need to be suspicious of the bulls here. If the bulls were clearly in control, they would not allow the bear trend bar to close on its low and below the past five bars.
  • Traders should expect at least a small second leg sideways to expect down today to be disappointing for both the bulls and the bears.
  • The bears hope this is the start of an endless pullback and reversal that will fall below the November 10 breakout.
  • The bulls see this selloff over the past few days as a 50% pullback test of the November 10th low to the November 15 high.
  • Overall, traders will pay close attention to today’s close to see if the bears can get a second consecutive strong bear trend bar close.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

Emini 5 Min: Opening Reversal, Small Pullback Trend

Brad created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day review

  • I will create End of Day video Soon

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. Al talks about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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