Emini Stalling below October 3rd Low

Trading Update: Tuesday October 31, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini is stalling and will probably test the October 3^rd breakout point low in the next few days.
• The bulls have been making money below bars, so buyers are probably below.
• The market is near several support layers, such as the midpoint (4,172) of the rally that began in October 2022.
• Traders will pay close attention to how the market will react to the October 3^rd low. The Bulls are hopeful that they will be able to get a strong bull close above the October 3^rd low. This would increase the odds of higher prices and a test back to 4,300.
• The bulls want to get above the October high, the most recent major swing high.  This would end the argument of a bear trend since the market would no longer be forming trending lower highs.
• The bears want the opposite of the bulls. The bears will try their best to keep the October 3^rd breakout point low open, leading to a measured move down.
• The bears need to prevent the bulls from getting a strong reversal. This means the bears need to form something like a Low 2 short, leading to a downside breakout.
• Overall, the Emini will probably rally above the October 3^rd breakout point low over the next couple of days, which would disappoint the bears.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The Emini is continuing the rally that began during yesterday’s  Globex session.
• The bulls will try and get follow-through buying, increasing the odds of a test of the October 3^rd low.
• Traders should expect a lot of trading range price action on the open. As I often say, there is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
• This means that traders should expect a trading range open and consider not trading the first 6-12 bars.
• Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour, after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
• Traders should pay attention to the open of the day, as well as yesterday’s high. Both will likely be essential magnets today.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD is getting a bull reversal, testing the October 23^rd bull breakout.
• The bulls hope to get an upside breakout and measured move up of the October bear flag.
• Traders will pay close attention to today’s follow-through. The more the bar closes near its high, the greater the probability of an upside breakout. The bulls still need to see the upside breakout for the probability to increase.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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