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Emini Large Bear Breakout

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Trading Update: Thursday December 19, 2024

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a large bear breakout yesterday, closing far below the daily moving average. This is a large enough surprise that the odds favor a 2nd leg down and a test of the November 4th low.
  • Because yesterday’s bar is large and climactic, it increases the odds that the market will have to pull back first. This means the odds are against today, forming a strong follow-through bar.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Today, gapped up on the open and sold off to bar 8. Because of the gap up, the odds favor a 2nd leg up.
  • This means the market may have to test back up to the bar 1 close.
  • The bears are hopeful that the day will form a bear trend from the open with bar 2.
  • Bar 9 lowers the probability for the bears and increases the odds of a trading range open.
  • Because yesterday was so climactic, there is a 75% chance of a trading range lasting at least 2 hours and beginning before the end of the second hour.
  • The bears are hopeful that the selling pressure over the first hour is enough to increase the odds of a test down to yesterday’s close.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Buy Climax Then Reversal Down after FOMC

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Double Bottom Then Broad Bear Channel

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed a downside breakout after yesterday’s FOMC report.
  • The daily chart has been in a bear trend below the moving average for some time. This slightly increases the odds of the bears getting the downside breakout and an attempt at trend resumption.
  • The bulls are trying to get a reversal bar today and create bad follow-through. Even if they do, the odds favor at least a small 2nd leg down.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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