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Weekly EURUSD Inside Doji

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The market formed a weekly EURUSD inside doji this week. The bulls want a breakout above, while the bears want a breakout below the inside bar. The bears want a strong breakout below the trading range and a measured move based on the height of the trading range. The bulls want a failed breakout and the trading range low to act as support followed by a retest of the middle of the trading range.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly - Retest Low, Double Bottom, No BO Yet, Weekly EURUSD Inside Doji
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was an inside bear doji closing in its upper half with a prominent tail below.
  • Last week, we said that traders would see if the bears could create a breakout with follow-through selling or if the market would stall around the November 22 low area and trade higher instead.
  • So far, there is no breakout below the November 22 low yet.
  • The bears got a second leg sideways to down to retest the recent extreme low (Nov 22) after the pullback.
  • They want a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the trading range.
  • They want another strong leg down completing the wedge pattern (the first two legs being Oct 23 and Nov 22).
  • If the market trades higher, they want a double top bear flag with the December 6 high.
  • The bulls see the move to the November 22 low as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within a trading range.
  • They see the move to the December 20 low as a retest of the prior leg’s extreme low.
  • They want a failed breakout and the trading range low to act as support followed by a retest of the middle of the trading range.
  • They want a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (Oct 3 and Nov 22), a higher low major trend reversal and a small double bottom (Nov 22 and Dec 20).
  • They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to indicate that they are back in control.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is an inside doji bar, the market is in breakout mode.
  • The bulls want a breakout above, while the bears want a breakout below the inside bar.
  • The first breakout can fail 50% of the time.
  • For now, traders will see if the bears can create a breakout below the November 22 low with follow-through selling.
  • Or will the market stall around the November 22 low area and trade higher instead?
  • Most breakouts from trading ranges fail and odds favor the trading range to continue.
  • The market is trading around the lower third of the trading range which can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The EURUSD is in a 111-week trading range. (Trading range high: July 2023, low: October 2023). 
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily - Retest Low, Bears Want BO, Double Bottom
  • The EURUSD traded sideways for the week.
  • Last week, we said that traders would see if the bears could create a retest and breakout below the November 22 low with follow-through selling or if the market would stall around the current levels and trade higher instead.
  • The bears got a second leg sideways to down to retest the recent leg extreme low (Nov 22).
  • They see this week forming a small double top bear flag (Dec 20 and Dec 27).
  • They want a strong breakout below the trading range followed by a measured move based on the height of the trading range.
  • If the market trades higher, they want a double top bear flag with the December 6 high.
  • They want the 20-day EMA or the bear trend line to act as resistance.
  • The bulls see the move down to the November 22 low as a sell vacuum and a bear leg testing the trading range low.
  • They want a failed breakout and hope that the trading range low will act as support.
  • They want reversal from a small double bottom (Nov 22 and Dec 12), a wedge pattern (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Dec 13) and a higher low major trend reversal.
  • They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs trading far above the 20-day EMA and the bear trend line to indicate they are back in control.
  • So far, the market is stalling around the November 22 low, but the buying pressure is not yet strong.
  • Traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying trading far above the 20-day EMA.
  • Or will the bears be able to create a retest and breakout below the November 22 low with follow-through selling instead?
  • The low of the large trading range can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • Most breakouts from trading ranges fail and odds favor the trading range to continue.
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.

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