Trading Update: Monday September 22, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini is getting its second leg up after the rally up to the September 16th high. While this is good for the bulls, it’s a buy climax late in a bull rally. This increases the odds of the market getting a reversal down fairly soon.
- The Bulls are doing a good job preventing the Bears from getting a bear reversal bar closing on its low, following the second leg up after Wednesday’s trend line break.
- This is momentum buying by the bulls, and once the momentum begins to stall, traders will begin to take partial profits. The risk is also large in the market, which is far from the moving average. This is a sign of climactic behavior and increases the odds of a pullback and the formation of a trading range on the daily chart.
- While the bulls are hopeful that the market will continue higher, the reality is that it’s likely going to start to go sideways very soon. Currently, the market is more than 130 points away from the 20-period moving average. This is becoming extreme and increases the odds that the market will at least have to go sideways and drag the moving average up to the current price.
- For the Bears to get a sharp reversal down, they’re going to need to increase the selling pressure first. This means that the market may go sideways and form a tight trading range while the market builds selling pressure.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The open in the U.S. session gapped down and formed a bull bar, closing on its high. The gap down is likely to find buyers on the open, and that increased the odds of a reversal up.
- The bulls got a second entry buy on bar 3, and the market formed a strong rally up to bar 5. The rally was strong enough that the odds favored a second leg, which the bulls got up to 18 high and the market broke above yesterday’s high.
- So far, the buying pressure on the open has been strong. However, because of the higher timeframe context, the odds are today will likely be a disappointment bar on the daily chart. This means that today is probably not going to be a bull trend day lasting all day.
- The Bears if they’re going to get a reversal down, they need to get closes below the moving average, and even then, the odds will still favor a trading range more than a bear trend.
- As of bar 33 Without more sideways trading, the best the Bears can hope for is trading range. This means that any reversal down will likely find buyers below willing to scale in lower.
- The buying pressure today is strong, and it’s possible that the higher time frame charts (such as the daily chart) are forming a late climactic breakout late in a bull trend. While the odds favor reversals after late climactic breakouts, they can last for a long time. This means that the 5-minute chart can rally for much further than what seems reasonable.
- Most traders are better off just thinking about the 5-minute chart in front of them and realizing that the bulls are clearly owning the market.
- However, because of the selling pressure from 19 to bar 30, there’s an increased risk that they’re sellers above the 19 high.
Friday’s E-mini setups
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Al created the SP500 E-mini charts.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a strong upside breakout on September 16th, breaking out above the July 1st high.
- While the breakout was good for the bulls, it was late in a rally that began back in early August.
- The Bears got three consecutive bear bars following the September 16th breakout. This is a sign that the breakout above the July 1st high is probably going to fail and continue to go sideways in a trading range.
- The bulls formed a strong bull bar, posing on its high today. This is good for the bulls. However, with it following three consecutive bear bars, it increases the risk that there are probably sellers somewhere above today’s high.
- Today is enough of a surprise that tomorrow is probably not going to form a strong bear reversal bar.
- This means that September 23rd will likely form a weak low, one short and probably have buyers below, and the market will bounce.
- The market may have to test the September 16th close and allow the trapped bulls out of the trade.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
